North Carolina got out to a 21-2 lead on the UVA Basketball team on Saturday, and to get there, the Tar Heels were 8-of-12 from the floor, and grabbed the game’s first 11 rebounds.
We knew it already then, that the outcome was already decided.
I mean, credit to the UVA kids for getting it back to seven on an Isaac McKneely three with 2:41 to go in the first half, and a McKneely fast-break layup got it to eight at the 13:29 mark of the second half.
By my count, Virginia was within single digits for a total of 2:58 after the initial onslaught.
Which is better than what we saw out of the team on Monday in the 80-62 loss to Duke, which took a little longer to get the game to double digits – an Isaiah Evans three at the 10:03 mark of the first half got the lead to 10 for the first time – but the game stayed in double-digits the rest of the way.
ICYMI
Duke, by the way, had the first 10 rebounds in that game, finishing with a 41-21 advantage on the boards, and a 16-7 advantage in second-chance points.
UNC finished Saturday’s game with a 35-21 rebound advantage, and a 17-2 advantage in second-chance points.
Lessons:
- You’re not going to beat good teams by digging yourself big early holes.
- Not going to beat good teams when they get all the rebounds.
Hit a brick wall
I was doing my best to sell the notion that the 5-2 stretch between Jan. 21 and Feb. 15 was more than a string of good efforts against bad teams.
Ahem.
Only one of those was against a team with a winning record (Pitt, which is 16-11, but is just 4-9 since Jan. 7).
This week was a reality check, and next week looks like more of the same coming.
Virginia goes on the road midweek to face Wake Forest (19-8, 11-5 ACC, NET: 60), which is in desperate need of a win to keep its dwindling NCAA Tournament hopes alive, after the Deacs suffered a bad loss to an awful NC State team on Saturday.
Then next weekend, Clemson (22-5, 14-2 ACC, NET: 24) comes to JPJ.
ICYMI
UVA would need to steal one of those, then win out against FSU (16-11, 7-9 ACC, NET: 88) and Syracuse (11-16, 5-11 ACC, NET: 148) to get above .500 for the regular season ahead of the ACC Tournament.
It’s a modest goal, but one worth putting up on the dry-erase board.
The odds of it happening: no, not good.
BartTorvik and Haslametrics offer the rosiest outlook, both projecting a 2-2 finish, and a 15-16 final regular-season record, and an 8-12 finish in the ACC.
KenPom projects a 1-3 finish, so, 14-17 overall, 7-13 in the ACC.
The low end there likely projects to an ACC Tournament seed in the 12-15 range.
Best-case looks like a 10 or 11 seed.
Either way, it’s the first Tuesday appearance in the ACC Tournament in program history.
Trends
- Isaac McKneely: he can’t do it all, but he’s trying.
iMac had 17 on Saturday, and over his last nine, he’s averaging 17.9 points and 3.0 assists per game, shooting 48.2 percent from the floor and 43.4 percent from three.
- Sophomore combo guard Dai Dai Ames had another double-digit game in the loss at UNC, going for 12 – all in the second half.
Over his last six games, Ames is averaging 15.7 points per game, on 61.9 percent shooting from the floor.
Breaking it down further: Ames has shot 15-of-16 at the rim and 15-of-24 on lane and midrange jumpers in the last six.
- Elijah Saunders, the other high-profile transfer, has struggled big-time since returning to the lineup after suffering a lower-leg injury that kept him out of the lineup for three games.
In four games since returning from the injury, Saunders has averaged 5.0 points and 3.3 rebounds in 18.5 minutes per game, on 4-of-24 shooting, 4-of-17 from three.
- Junior point guard Andrew Rohde had a quiet eight points (3-of-9 FG, 2-of-6 3FG) and four assists in the loss on Saturday.
Over his last seven games, coinciding with his return from a lower-leg injury, Rohde is averaging 10.3 points and 7.2 assists per game, shooting 41.7 percent from the field and 44.8 percent from three.
The other important stat: Rohde has 43 assists vs. eight turnovers in that stretch.
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Chris Graham
