The UVA Baseball team limped into April with a 15-11 record – including a 6-6 ledger in ACC competition. Since the beginning of the month, the ‘Hoos have gone 5-4 bringing them to their current 20-15 overall record and a 9-9 mark in league play.
That reality puts UVA in a precarious position. Without question, the Cavaliers are fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives. Both D1 Baseball and Baseball America placed Virginia as a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and both publications have the ‘Hoos in their Last Four In danger zone. D1 has UVA in Conway, S.C., paired with No. 14 seeded Coastal Carolina, and Baseball America has Virginia in Irvine, Calif., with No. 16 UC Irvine.
Why are the ‘Hoos in this quandary? The primary culprit – inconsistency.
In the batters’ box and on the bump. Because of the erratic play of both the offense and defense, in a five-game span from March 19-25, UVA plated 18 runs while surrendering 46. The next five contests they outscored their opponents 52-34.
Virginia was 5-3 in February, 7-3 during their first 10 games in March and then proceeded to lose five consecutive games. Since then, the Wahoos have won eight games and dropped four.
“One of the trademarks of our program is consistency, night-in and night-out, and obviously we played great on Sunday, and were not ready to play [Tuesday] night, and not ready to play to the standard of Virginia baseball,” lamented UVA Head Coach Brian O’Connor.
Despite the up-and-down play, UVA controls its fate.
Currently, Virginia sits in seventh place in the ACC standings, tied at 9-9 with Wake Forest, Virginia Tech and Duke. Remaining on the schedule includes road series against No. 14 Georgia Tech (April 25-27), Virginia Tech (May 15-17) and starting tonight against No. 13 Florida State in Tallahassee. The Cavaliers will host Miami for a three-game series starting May 9-11.
A win at Mike Martin Field at Dick Howser Stadium in Florida and a series win or at least a road tally in Atlanta against the Yellow Jackets would be a big RPI boost for the Hoos. The ‘Hoos could really use a sweep against the Hurricanes or Hokies and a 2-1 split at the other would be huge.
They’ll need to play better and make some noise on the road. The UVA resume currently has some gaps. The Cavalier RPI, according to D1 Baseball, is 83 and the Hoos strength of schedule is 90.
Compared to the teams Virginia is tied with in the conference, their numbers are superior to the Wahoos.
Wake Forest has a solid 17 RPI and a top 10 SOS at No.7. The Hokies have an RPI of 35 and a SOS at 37. Duke’s SOS is the lowest among the three at 64, and their RPI is 42. Warren Nolan Baseball has the Deacs at No.18 in RPI and eighth in SOS, Virginia Tech with a 30 SOS and a 35 RPI, and the Blue Devils with a 42 RPI and 51 SOS.
Nolan does not have happy news for Wahoo fans with his information. His metrics has the club going 14-16 in the conference and 32-22 overall. He has Virginia ranked with a regular season ending RPI of 64, a 55 SOS, and has the ‘Hoos finishing the season with a 7-10 Quad 1 & Quad 2 record.
But there is some hope.
In Virginia’s last five College World Series seasons, their records on April 16 are a bit of a mishmash.
- On April 16, 2015, the Cavaliers had a season record of 22-14 and an ACC mark of 7-11.
- On April 16, 2021, the ‘Hoos stood at 16-16 for the regular season and 9-13 in the league.
- In 2022, on April 16, UVA held a 10-7 conference record and a 27-8 overall tally.
- UVA’s best mark in those five CWS seasons was on April 16 when the Hoos were 31-6 for the 2023 campaign and 12-6 in ACC play.
- Finally, last year Virginia was 28-9 on April 16 and 11-7 in the ACC.
- And today, it’s 20-15 and 9-9.
“We’ve been searching for consistency,” O’Connor added. “I thought over the last three weeks we’ve played better baseball.’
O’Connor is absolutely correct. Over the last 12 games, the Cavaliers have won eight of their 12 outings, outscoring the opponents 90-39. Two of Virginia’s losses were by one run, and overall UVA outscored their opposition 110-77. Those numbers are due in large part to the increase in home runs and slug over the last three weeks. Through the first 23 games of the season Virginia averaged 0.88 home runs per game. Over the last nine, the offense has stroked 1.55 bombs per game and raised the team’s overall slugging percentage by 20 percent.
The Cavaliers have 18 games left. Six are non-conference, and ZERO can end the way the Liberty game did Tuesday evening. Twelve are in the ACC, and nine of those contests will be on the road against very solid clubs. If the ‘Hoos can find a way to win eight of these 12 league matchups, I believe they will be assured of a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Anything less, and selection Monday may be a long day for the Cavalier faithful.
Share
