Home-field advantage is the greatest in the sport of soccer, which, you know, it just so happens that the U.S. Men’s National Team will be playing on home fields throughout the 2026 World Cup.
Can the USMNT ride home field to a deep run this summer?
The data says: yes.
But, why?
USNMT (1-0-0) vs. Australia (1-0-0)
- Friday, 3 p.m. ET/Fox Sports
“I think people appreciate that being at home can offer many advantages, but might not be aware of the multitude of reasons why,” said Ivan Hernandez, assistant professor of industrial-organizational psychology at Virginia Tech, who has done research related to sports analysis and methodology.
Another guy who has one of my dream jobs there.
It’s not just having a supportive home crowd, though that’s part of it.
Hernandez said sports with denser attendance and greater crowd intensity tend to produce larger advantages for home teams.
A key there: crowds can influence officiating, with referees sometimes making close calls that favor home teams.
Across 10 sports that Hernandez examined, soccer has the largest average home advantage across leagues, with a high of 69.1 percent in Major League Soccer, the highest professional soccer league in the United States.
Hernandez groups home-field advantages into three broad categories:
- Motivational advantages include the psychological boost players receive from supportive crowds.
- Physiological advantages include factors such as reduced travel, better rest, and familiar surroundings.
- Structural advantages can come from stadium conditions, crowd influence, and even subtle effects on officiating.
As the USMNT (FIFA World Rank: 15) prepares for its second game in the 2026 Cup, on Friday against Australia (FIFA World Rank: 23), we will have the supportive crowd on our side (and yelling at the refs) in Seattle; a win gets the USNMT an early ticket into the knockout round should have the home fans at a fever pitch hours before kickoff.
The travel issue is a push, since both teams played in the Pacific time zone last week.
The two teams are pretty evenly matched.
Could it be as simple as … home field?
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Chris Graham
