VCU held serve with an 80-51 win over UMass in its midweek game on Wednesday night, setting up a weekend showdown for first place in the A-10 with in-state rival George Mason.
The Rams (21-5, 11-2 A-10, NET: 33) got 19 points from Max Shulga and 17 points from Jack Clark, and VCU was 14-of-29 from three in the blowout win.
Mason (21-5, 12-1 A-10, NET: 63) had a midweek bye.
The computers love VCU looking ahead to Saturday at the Siegel Center in Richmond (4 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network), with KenPom.com projecting a 68-59 Rams win.
My brain doesn’t function like an algorithm, but I’m foreseeing a world-title-quality prizefight between these two.
Getting to know: VCU
Coach Ryan Odom will use as many as 11 guys, but the core is an eight-man rotation, with four of his guys averaging in double-digits in scoring.
The foundation pieces are his backcourt guys: 6’4” senior Joe Bamisile (15.9 ppg, 5.2 rebounds/g, 47.4% FG, 32.9% 3FG), 6’5” senior Max Shulga (15.2 ppg, 5.8 rebounds/g, 4.0 assists/g, 44.7% FG, 41.7% 3FG), and 6’0” Phillip Russell (11.3 ppg, 41.5% FG, 36.5% 3FG).
All three are actually fifth-year seniors, as is the key reserve for Odom, 6’5” guard Zeb Jackson (10.4 ppg, 37.9% FG, 33.3% 3FG).
The frontcourt is big – with 6’10” sixth-year senior Jack Clark (8.6 ppg, 6.6 rebounds/g, 46.3% FG, 31.7% 3FG) and 6’10” freshman Luke Bamgboye (2.9 ppg, 3.0 rebounds/g, 15.6 minutes/g) starting, and 6’10” junior Christian Fermin (5.0 ppg, 3.5 rebounds/g, 20.4 minutes/g) the first big off the bench.
Style points for VCU:
- Tempo: 66.6 possessions per game (KenPom: 216th nationally)
- Adjusted offense: 1.160 points per possession (KenPom: 54th nationally)
- Adjusted defense: 0.963 points per possession (KenPom: 23rd nationally
- Offensive-rebound rate: 36.5 percent (KenPom: 19th nationally)
- Three-point attempts per game: 28.9 (SportsReference: 18th nationally)
Getting to know: George Mason
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Second-year Mason coach Tony Skinn, who was a key player on George Mason’s 2006 Final Four team, is having success right off the bat (41-17 record to this point at his alma mater).
Skinn also goes with an eight-man core rotation, and like Odom, his team is also old, with four fifth-year seniors and two other four-year seniors in the rotation.
The leading scorer is a former Virginia Tech transfer, 6’5” guard Darius Maddox (13.6 ppg, 39.9% FG, 33.6% 3FG).
Brayden O’Connor, a 6’4” junior (9.3 ppg, 2.8 assists/g, 43.1% FG, 35.2% 3FG), splits time at point guard with 6’0” senior KD Johnson (6.8 ppg, 2.6 assists/g, 40.5% FG, 37.0% 3FG).
Jalen Haynes, a 6’8” senior, gets the bulk of the minutes at center (12.8 ppg, 7.0 rebounds/g, 57.6% FG), and he’s really good around the rim (74.4% FG) and in the paint (63.1% FG).
The other key guy in the post is 6’9” senior Woody Newton (7.4 ppg, 4.0 rebounds/g, 40.1% FG, 36.1% 3FG), a stretch-four.
Style points for George Mason:
- Tempo: 64.1 possessions per game (KenPom: 334th nationally)
- Adjusted offense: 1.065 points per possession (KenPom: 196th nationally)
- Adjusted defense: 0.948 points per possession (KenPom: 15th nationally
- Offensive-rebound rate: 32.4 percent (KenPom: 102nd nationally)
- Three-point attempts per game: 19.9 (SportsReference: 303rd nationally)
Forecast
- KenPom: VCU 68-59
- BartTorvik: VCU 66-60
- EvanMiya: VCU 70-61
- Haslametrics: VCU 69-59
- ESPN BPI: VCU +7.7
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Chris Graham
