Home Metrics: The computers (because of KenPom) have Virginia on the NCAA cutline

Metrics: The computers (because of KenPom) have Virginia on the NCAA cutline

Chris Graham
ncaa tournament
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Take out KenPom, and Virginia is a solid at-large NCAA Tournament team, likely a 10 seed, so not even last four byes, much less last four in.

But KenPom is there, it’s used as part of the tournament selection process, and its algorithm hates the ‘Hoos.

Virginia’s average rating in the other five computer metrics is 43.0; KenPom has Virginia ranked 70th.

It’s all the blowout losses – all nine have been by double-digits.

I was in Cameron yesterday for the 73-48 butt-whuppin’ Duke handed Virginia on Saturday. It’s loud in there (mostly the DJ between timeouts), but I wanted to yell down to Tony Bennett – hey, don’t take the starters out, we could use some cheap points here at the end against their subs.

Leonard Hamilton, I remember, played an endgame that way in a blowout loss in JPJ back in 2019, leaving his starters in against UVA’s walk-ons to turn a 29-point loss into a 13-point loss with a 160 run in the final 2:19, and at the time, I couldn’t figure out what he was doing.

The predictive-measure computer rankings like KenPom take final margins into account.

It ain’t right, but it’s the way it is.

Metric Previous Rank Rank Today Change
SOR 35 35  0
ELO 33 42 -9
KPI 35 35  0
NET 46 49 -3
BPI 46 54  -8
KenPom 64 70  -6
Average 42.7 47.2  -4.5

The ACC really sh-t the bed on Saturday. Virginia getting blown out by Duke, and Wake Forest losing at Virginia Tech, took two teams that had solid cases for at-large berths back down to the cutline.

And Pitt, sure, is edging its way up toward the cutline, but they can’t afford a slip, either, with a week to go in the regular season, and then the ACC Tournament.

School Average Rating Projected Seed Line
UNC  8.3  2
Duke  9.9  2/3
Clemson  25  6
Wake Forest  43.3  10/11
Virginia  47.2  bubble
Pitt  48.7  bubble

Chris Graham

Chris Graham

Chris Graham is the founder and editor of Augusta Free Press. A 1994 alum of the University of Virginia, Chris is the author and co-author of seven books, including Poverty of Imagination, a memoir published in 2019, and Team of Destiny: Inside Virginia Basketball’s Run to the 2019 National Championship, and The Worst Wrestling Pay-Per-View Ever, published in 2018. For his commentaries on news, sports and politics, go to his YouTube page, or subscribe to his Street Knowledge podcast. Email Chris at [email protected].