UVA Basketball (8-5, 1-1 ACC) hosts Louisville (9-5, 2-1 ACC) on Saturday at 4 p.m. ET in the next in a series of must-win games for the interim coaching staff.
Forecast
- KenPom: Louisville 66-64, 56% win probability
- EvanMiya: Louisville 69-65, 65.8% win probability
- BartTorvik: Louisville 63-62, 58% win probability
- ESPN BPI: Louisville +0.6, 52.6% win probability
- Haslametrics: Louisville 65-62
Video: UVA Basketball Louisville preview
Pregame
Ron Sanchez is going with a starting backcourt of Andrew Rohde, Isaac McKneely, Taine Murray. Dai Dai Ames, who sat the last 30 minutes in the win over NC State, is on the bench.
First half
First media timeout: UVA 6, Louisville 6, 15:56/1st
Fun stuff here with matchups: Sanchez is using Taine Murray and Isaac McKneely on the 6’11” center, Noah Waterman, who, it needs to be said, is just floating around the perimeter, so I can see why they’re doing that.
Second media timeout: UVA 11, Louisville 11, 11:30/1st
Feels like a boxing match between two middleweight contenders. Still trying to feel each other out here early.
The pace is glacial: we’re on pace for a 57-possession game.
Third media timeout: Louisville 18, UVA 14, 7:42/1st
UVA is 5-of-16 from the floor, 1-of-9 from three. Only down four because just one turnover (Louisville has four).
Rebounding is again an issue: 55.5% defensive rebound percentage (five D rebounds, Louisville has four O rebounds).
Fourth media timeout: UVA 20, Louisville 20, 3:59/1st
Virginia has scored on three of its last four trips with good offense to get there.
Louisville has missed its last five shots.
Half: Louisville 32, UVA 27
Louisville has only attempted nine threes among its 27 field goal attempts. Coming in, 52.9 percent of their shot attempts were threes.
They’re 7-of-13 at the rim, 3-of-9 from three and 2-of-5 on two-point jumpers (one of the makes was in the paint).
Virginia 4-of-8 at the rim, 2-of-12 from three and 5-of-7 on two-point jumpers (two makes in the paint).
The defensive rebounding got better: 68.8 percent (11 D rebounds, five O rebounds).
Rohde and McKneely each have eight points.
Ames only played five minutes.
He wasn’t hurt, as we said.
Second half
Louisville timeout: Louisville 36, UVA 34, 16:42/2nd
With the score 36-27, Sanchez sent Anthony Robinson and TJ Power to the scorer’s table to sub in.
A McKneely three, then buckets by Elijah Saunders and Jacob Cofie, fueled a 7-0 run.
Sanchez came out of the timeout with a two-guard, three-forward lineup.
Odd.
What he was doing was working, and he’s changing it up.
Virginia timeout: Louisville 45, UVA 37, 12:50/2nd
Ames is getting exploited on D. That was the why on the timeout.
Louisville timeout: Louisville 52, UVA 45, 7:08/2nd
I don’t know that just running the same offense better is going to do it in the last 7:08.
Louisville is 8-of-23 from the floor in the second half, but still up seven.
Virginia timeout: Louisville 64, UVA 47, 2:48/2nd
As I wrote above, just running the same offense better isn’t going to do it.
And running the same offense and scoring two points in the last 4:20 isn’t going to do it, either.
Final: Louisville 70, UVA 50
I did not foresee this, either before the game, when it was pretty obvious that Louisville is a chuck-and-duck team, streaky at best, and at worst, or during the first 30 or so minutes.
It boggles the mind why Sanchez went mover/blocker for 40 minutes, not a single adjustment.
The Louisville kids knew where our guys were supposed to be better than our guys did.
The idea of just running the same tired offense harder was not going to work.
And then on the other end: Louisville, the chuckers-and-duckers, only attempted 19 threes.
And they were 15-of-29 at the rim.
Virginia was 6-of-16 at the rim, and 5-of-26 from three.
That was a mugging, on both ends.
I simply cannot fathom the depth of the 20-point turd that was just laid here tonight.
Share
Chris Graham
