The UVA Basketball team (13-13, 6-9 ACC) faces North Carolina (16-11, 9-6 ACC) on Saturday (4 p.m. ET, ESPN2) in Chapel Hill.
The stakes are all on UNC’s side: the Tar Heels, looking to sneak into the NCAA Tournament, can’t afford a slip-up
Virginia, with a 105 ranking in the NET, is a Quad 3 game for the Heels.
The game with UVA is the first of four Quad 2s and Quad 3s in a row for Carolina (at FSU is a Quad 2, Miami at home and at Virginia Tech are both Quad 3s), before finishing with Duke at home on March 8.
A loss in any of the next four makes it really hard for UNC when it comes to Selection Sunday, absent an upset of Duke, or a deep run in the ACC Tournament.
Forecast
- KenPom: UNC 77-66
- BartTorvik: UNC 75-66
- EvanMiya: UNC 78-66
- Haslametrics: UNC 75-66
- ESPN BPI: UNC +12.2
Pregame
A change in the starting lineup for UVA: Ron Sanchez is going back to Elijah Saunders in the post, demoting Jacob Cofie.
What I’ll be watching for there: is Cofie the first big off the bench?
I ask because, I’d go with Anthony Robinson as the first big off the bench, personally.
I say that, and I’d have gone with Robinson as the other starter, in place of Blake Buchanan.
First half
UVA timeout: UNC 15, UVA 2, 14:05/1st
Carolina is 6-of-9 from the floor, and has 10 rebounds.
UVA is 1-of-8 from the floor, no rebounds.
There’s not showing up, and then there’s not showing up.
Second media timeout: UNC 21, UVA 4, 10:56/1st
Update to my story from yesterday: Ron Sanchez has played himself back out of contention for the UVA job.
The lack of effort on the boards the past two games is unacceptable.
Duke had a 12-1 rebound advantage out of the gate on Monday. Carolina has an 11-2 advantage right now.
Dai Dai Ames has two fouls, so he’s bolted to the bench until the second half.
Dai Dai has averaged 16.4 points per game over his last five. That hurts.
Third media timeout: UNC 35, UVA 23, 6:04/1st
Virginia has made seven of its last nine, but UNC has made six of its last seven.
Rebounds: UNC 14, UVA 2.
Two rebounds in 13:56.
Jacob Cofie (five points, 2-of-2 FG, 1-of-1 3FG) to the bench with two fouls.
Isaac McKneely has six points – four of them on technical free throws.
Carolina is 12-of-17 from the field, 5-of-6 from three.
Fourth media timeout: UNC 37, UVA 27, 3:39/1st
Both teams going through lulls on offense right now.
Pace: 63.6 possessions/40 minutes. Slightly faster than UVA wants.
Rebounds: UNC 16, UVA 3.
Halftime: UNC 46, UVA 34
Odd stat of the year: UVA had five rebounds, total, in the first half.
Five.
Virginia started 1-of-10 from the floor, made 11 of its last 14.
Carolina was 12-of-14 at the line. (UVA: 5-of-5.)
Jae’Lyn Withers, who is averaging 5.3 points per game, had 11 (3-of-4 FG, 3-of-3 3FG, 2-of-2 FT).
McKneely: 13 points (3-of-6 FG, 2-of-4 3FG, 5-of-5 FT).
Andrew Rohde: five points, three assists, but four turnovers.
Pace: 65.0 possessions/40 minutes.
Second half
First media timeout: UNC 53, UVA 36, 16:00/2nd
We’re back to where things were at the beginning of the first half.
Can’t afford to let Carolina dominate the first eight minutes again.
Virginia missed six of its first seven shots in the second half.
Not getting good looks.
Second media timeout: UNC 61, UVA 49, 11:52/2nd
It got as close as eight, so, credit to the UVA kids.
The next 4-5 minutes will determine how this one plays out.
Third media timeout: UNC 69, UVA 55, 8:00/2nd
Looks like the early 21-2 disadvantage is going to be too much to overcome.
Virginia can get it to 8-10, but can’t get any closer.
The rebounding, at least, has leveled out: Carolina has a modest 9-8 advantage in the second half.
Second-chance points (game): UNC 15, UVA 0.
There’s your ballgame.
UVA’s leading rebounder is Buchanan, with three.
Final media timeout: UNC 79, UVA 64, 1:46/2nd
Basically even since the 21-2 start, but that’s not even a moral victory.
Losing to Duke by 18 is understandable. This Carolina team isn’t that much.
Final: UNC 81, UVA 66
This game was over at the first media timeout with Carolina up 15-2.
Virginia was able to claw back as close as seven, once, for 25 seconds, and it was back within single digits, by my count, for a total of 2:58 after the opening onslaught.
You can’t just get behind that big, against anybody, but particularly on the road.
Second straight game where rebounding was the difference: UNC had a 35-21 advantage on the glass, and a 17-2 advantage in second-chance points.
That 15-point margin is obviously the biggest difference in the game.
Virginia was 1-of-11 from three in the second half after shooting 5-of-11 from three in the first half.
Make a couple more of those in the second half, it’s something.
Dai Dai Ames only got three minutes in the first half with foul trouble.
Second half: he had 12 points (5-of-6 FG, 0-of-1 3FG, 2-of-2 FT) in 15 minutes.
His early foul trouble, clearly, a factor.
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Chris Graham
