Gas price forecast: $4.80 a gallon through the summer months

Gas prices are at their highest level in nearly four years, and GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan is forecasting a $4.80 per gallon average over the summer, through Labor Day.

“This is the most volatile summer at the pump in years, and the Strait of Hormuz closure is at the center of it,” said De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, which has the average nationwide on Wednesday at $4.55 a gallon; we were at $2.94 a gallon when Donald Trump started an unprovoked war with Iran back in February.

He claims it’s about Iran having a nuclear weapon; Iran was nowhere near having the capability to produce a nuclear weapon, much less ever use one.

Trump, you might remember, got himself in trouble last week for saying he doesn’t factor how much more we’re paying at the pump into his strategy with Iran.

POTUS doubled down on Tuesday, saying the higher prices are “peanuts.”

Reality check: “Americans are going to pay billions more to get where they’re going this summer, and even after the Strait reopens, it could take a year or more for gas prices to fully recover,” De Haan said.

That’s because, the full impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been mitigated significantly by the amount of oil that was already past the now-closed Strait on its way to its international destinations.

From what I’m hearing, De Haan projecting $4.80 a gallon through the summer is optimistic, is how bad things are going to be.

De Haan is acknowledging that – in his report, he said “if the Strait remains closed for much of the summer, prices could reach beyond $5 per gallon and potentially set new all-time records.”

The spin from the Trump inner circle is that prices were higher under the Biden administration, and it’s true – on May 17, 2022, the average price nationwide was at $4.55 a gallon, and it remained at or above that level through July 17, 2022, peaking at $5.03 a gallon on June 14, 2022.

That was in the early months of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the disruption to markets resulting.

The national average in 2026 hit $4.54 a gallon May 5, and only dipped below the $4.50 mark for three days – May 10, and May 16-17.

If we get to Labor Day with the price point at $4.80 a gallon, that’s four months above the worst of the Biden years – and it would have been self-induced.

Again, there was no threat from Iran.