KenPom.com projects JMU to win the Sun Belt this year, and that’s not nothing – the Sun Belt has two teams in the KenPom Top 100 (JMU and Marshall), and the conference ranks 14th among the 33 in the metrics site’s power rankings.
In the here and now, Madison is 7-2, the losses being an 80-64 setback at North Carolina that saw the Dukes claw their way back from a 19-point halftime deficit to make it interesting for a while in the second half, and an 81-79 defeat to Valparaiso that is nothing short of inexcusable – KenPom has the Beacons ranked 279th, and they’re just 3-6 on the season.
So, this JMU team has a decent ceiling for a mid-major – they’ll be the favorite from their conference for an NCAA Tournament bid, and probably a 12 or 13 seed if they can win the Sun Belt Tournament in March.
But the floor might be low, too.
Seriously, Valpo.
The rotation
JMU leads the nation in scoring, at 93.3 points per game, the numbers skewed a bit by the 123 the Dukes put up in a win over D3 Valley Forge, and the 100 they scored in a win over Coastal Georgia, which plays in NAIA.
So maybe you also need to take the 52.7 percent shooting from the field number you see on the JMU stat sheet with a grain of salt.
Madison also shoots 42.2 percent from three this season, for what that’s worth, given the schedule.
In the one game on the schedule against a KenPom Top 100 team, UNC, the Dukes shot 34.8 percent from the floor and were 7-of-27 (25.9 percent) from three.
JMU coach Mark Byington, who took over the program in 2021 after a nice run at Georgia Southern that included a 2019 NCAA Tournament appearance, goes nine-deep with his rotation, all averaging double-digits in minutes.
The lineup features four guys scoring in double figures – 6’4” guard Takal Molson (12.6 ppg, 54.1% FG, 47.4% 3FG), 6’6” forward Terrence Edwards (12.3 ppg, 64.6% FG, 66.7% 3FG), 6’0” point guard Vado Morse (12.0 ppg, 37.6% FG, 39.2% 3FG), and 6’8” center Mezie Offurum (11.0 ppg, 5.7 rebs/g, 67.8% FG).
The rest of the rotation:
- 6’4” guard Noah Freidel (9.8 ppg, 34.5% FG, 28.8% 3FG)
- 6’8” center Julien Wooden (9.4 ppg, 58.2% FG, 58.3% 3FG)
- 6’7” forward Alonzo Sule (8.2 ppg, 56.3% FG)
- 6’7” forward Justin Amadi (7.4 ppg, 73.0% FG)
- 6’2” point guard Xavier Brown (4.4 ppg, 64.0% FG, 50.0% 3FG)
In the UNC game
JMU put four guys into double figures in the loss at Carolina – Molson (19 points, six rebounds, 7-of-16 FG, 3-of-6 3FG), Offurum (12 points, eight rebounds, 5-of-6 FG), Wooden (11 points, 4-of-7 FG, 1-of-1 3FG) and Morse (10 points, 3-of-17 FG, 2-of-8 3FG).
Madison committed nine turnovers on its 75 possessions, and was outrebounded 50-34.
Analytics
JMU: offense 1.080 PPP (63rd nationally), defense 0.986 PPP (97th nationally), tempo 73.1 possessions/g (16th nationally)
Virginia: offense 1.160 PPP (eight nationally), defense 0.910 PPP (20th nationally), tempo 60.6 possessions/g (361st nationally)
Data: KenPom.com
Last year
JMU won in Harrisonburg, 52-49. Virginia led 10-2 at the second media timeout, but the Dukes closed out the first half on a 22-4 run to go into the break up 10, and led by as many as 13 early in the second half.
Virginia rallied to take the lead on an Armaan Franklin jumper with 1:27 to go, but a pair of buckets by Molson closed out the upset.
Before the closing sequence, JMU fans serenaded UVA coach Tony Bennett with an “f— you, Tony” chant as he argued a call with officials late in the game.
Bennett, of Five Pillars fame, doesn’t seem the vengeful sort, but if he were …
Forecast
KenPom: Virginia 76-62, 89% win probability
Bart Torvik: Virginia 72-62, 86% win probability
ESPN BPI: Virginia +8.3, 79.2% win probability
Vegas: UVA +12, over/under 134.5 (projected score: 73-61)
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Chris Graham
