Early voting in the 2024 election cycle has wrapped, and the numbers in Augusta County, Staunton and Waynesboro are trending surprisingly well with 2020.
The early-vote numbers are from the Virginia Public Access Project.
First table: early votes in 2024 relative to 2020.
| Early Votes: 2024 | Early Votes: 2020 | 2024 vs. 2020 | |
| Augusta County | 19863 | 21118 | 94.05% |
| Staunton | 6878 | 9067 | 75.86% |
| Waynesboro | 6168 | 6792 | 90.81% |
Next table: early vote as a share of the overall vote.
| Early Votes 2020 | Total Votes 2020 | Early Vote Share | |
| Augusta County | 21118 | 42278 | 49.99% |
| Staunton | 9067 | 12990 | 69.80% |
| Waynesboro | 6792 | 10717 | 63.38% |
Next table: final turnout relative to total voters on the rolls.
| Total Votes 2020 | Voter Rolls 2020 | Turnout Rate | |
| Augusta County | 42278 | 52255 | 80.91% |
| Staunton | 12990 | 17111 | 75.91% |
| Waynesboro | 10717 | 14305 | 74.91% |
Final table: Trump vs. Biden in the region in 2020.
| Trump 2020 | Biden 2020 | Margin | ||
| Augusta County | 72.64% | 25.63% | Trump +47.01% | |
| Staunton | 43.84% | 53.74% | Biden +9.90% | |
| Waynesboro | 51.39% | 46.29% | Trump +5.10% | |
| Total Region | 63.52% | 34.52% | Trump +29.00% | |
Trends
Augusta County, which is, traditionally, supermajority Republican, had far greater turnout on Election Day in 2020, with slightly more than half of its final vote tally coming on Election Day.
Republican voters, you probably remember, weren’t exactly encouraged to vote early in 2020, with Donald Trump casting a lot of doubt on the process.
Staunton, which is more left-of-center, got more than two-thirds of its votes from early voting.
Waynesboro, which is closer to 50/50, leaning right-of-center in 2020, still got a good bit of its activity from early voting.
Looking ahead to our final tallies in the 2024 cycle, I’m not surprised to see Waynesboro trending closer to its early-vote total from 2020, because there are three contested elections for seats on Waynesboro City Council on the ballot.
I am surprised, at first glance, that Staunton is behind where it was in 2020, because there are four open seats on Staunton City Council on the 2024 ballot.
I suspect that the lack of Republican challengers to the five independents running for the four seats is a factor depressing the more local early turnout there.
I am surprised to see Augusta County tracking really close to where it was in early voting in 2024.
What to watch for on Election Day
Turnout, and Trump’s share, in Augusta County will be the first thing I’ll be watching locally.
My sense is that Republican voter enthusiasm is down from where it was in 2016 and 2020, so I’ll be looking for a turnout rate in the county more into the low 70s in 2024.
I’m also thinking Trump’s share in Augusta County dips into the mid to upper 60s, with a slice of Republican women voting on reproductive freedom instead of party loyalty.
Staunton’s turnout should be down as well, with a relatively non-competitive local election, and diminished enthusiasm among Republican voters.
I’m looking for Kamala Harris to rack up a 12- to 15-point win in Staunton in the 2024 cycle.
Can a Democratic presidential candidate carry Waynesboro? It’s been forever, but I think the demographic trends – the influx of new residents who work in the Charlottesville area – were already working in the favor of the Ds, and that was before we had three very competitive races for seats on the City Council.
My gut instinct tells me this is the year the Ds win Waynesboro at the presidential level, in concert with a sweep by the center and left-of-center candidates for City Council against a MAGA-endorsed Republican slate.
The over/under for the Trump share of the total region presidential vote is 60.0 percent. I’m going with the under, in the range of 58.5 percent.
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Chris Graham
