I got into an interesting discussion with Adam Epstein on The Fan in Richmond today about the Virginia QB situation, which on paper is a good one, with two QBs – Tony Muskett and Anthony Colandrea – putting up good numbers behind center.
(Listen here.)
Adam’s take is that Tony Elliott should go with Colandrea, the true freshman who is now back to being the backup, over Muskett, the senior with another year of eligibility after this season, because of his COVID redshirt, primarily because Colandrea is the younger guy, and Elliott can build around him.
It’s not a bad take, but of course I say that because it’s one that I’d been making after seeing what Colandrea was able to do running the show.
Elliott, you remember, made it clear after Muskett went down to a left shoulder injury in the fourth quarter of the 49-13 Week 1 loss to Tennessee in Nashville that it’s his policy that a starter doesn’t lose his position due to injury, which left out the possibility that a backup could play so well in the starter’s absence to change his opinion on who the starter should be.
Colandrea ended up starting three games as Muskett worked his way back into the starting lineup, and availed himself well, averaging 303.8 yards per game as the starter.
But it’s not like Muskett, since returning as the starter in Week 5, has played himself out of a job.
To the contrary, as I wrote in my Midseason Report Card earlier this week, the numbers for the two are almost identical, both throwing five TDs passes, both completing 61 percent of their pass attempts.
Colandrea makes quicker decisions, is more mobile and is better in the short passing game; Muskett is more accurate downfield, and is less turnover-prone – two INTs, vs. six for Colandrea.
Weigh it all out, and they’re basically the same guy.
If Elliott wants to stick with Muskett because he won the job at the end of training camp, Elliott is the coach, he gets to make that call.
And if he wants to go with the veteran – Muskett started for three years at Monmouth, an FCS program – over the young guy because he thinks Muskett gives his team a better chance to win this year, again, this is why UVA is paying the guy $4.25 million a year.
But the argument that Adam brought up today on the radio, and I’d been making last month, still stands as a counterweight.
One, this season is already a loss, with Virginia sitting at 1-5 at the midway point.
Two, and more to the point, the young guy has three and a half years of eligibility; Muskett has the rest of this season, then next, and then he’s done.
If Elliott doesn’t need to use Colandrea any more this season, of course, the freshman can use this year as a redshirt season, since he’s only played in four games to this point, so, that’s an even bigger plus for sitting him and going with Muskett.
Except …
Assuming Colandrea doesn’t take his three games of game tape to shop himself on the transfer portal, he’d come back next spring to begin the 2024 cycle as the backup yet again to Muskett, right?
Is there any reason to think that wouldn’t be the case?
So, Elliott would go into 2024 expecting Colandrea to hold the clipboard another year; that, or have the guys duke it out in the spring and in training camp next year, and if the best man ends up being Colandrea, then Muskett is put in the awkward position of being the fifth-year senior backup to a guy who was his understudy.
I got in trouble with one of the contract employees over there for pointing out that Colandrea’s success as the starter was creating a QB controversy, but that guy wants you to believe that everything is hunky-dory with a 1-5 start in 2023 and a 4-12 record for Elliott halfway through Year 2.
If this was 1993 instead of 2023, having two QBs with the numbers that Muskett and Colandrea have been putting up would be a nice problem to have – basically, your veteran starter gets hurt again, or is ineffective for a stretch, you can plug in the young guy, and know that he has the goods to get the job done.
But in 2023, the transfer portal makes it so that you have to balance what you’re doing in the here and now with your plans for the future.
That should probably be tougher for a coach who is 5-1 than it is for a coach who is 1-5, honestly.
A 1-5 coach should already be looking at the remaining schedule as a chance to build toward the future.
Unless …
Well, one reason why a 1-5 coach would be feeling pressure to win now would be that maybe somebody gave that coach a sense that the future isn’t guaranteed.
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Chris Graham
