Back to square one: Reset of Virginia’s congressional races post-Scott v. McDougle

The four MAGAs on the Supreme Court of Virginia negated the votes of 1,604,276 Virginians who wanted new congressional maps on Friday, which means, we’re back to square one with the 2026 midterms in Virginia.

Virginia Democrats hold a 6-5 edge in the U.S. House delegation.

At least two of the incumbent Republicans, Rob Wittman in the First District and Jen Kiggans in the Second District, are vulnerable – based on both the 2024 and 2025 votes in their districts.

Tom Perriello has an outside shot in the Fifth District, which is held by MAGA Congressman John McGuire.

It would take a miracle for Beth Macy to unseat Ben Cline in the Sixth, but the Red Sea once parted, and the U.S. hockey team beat the Russians in Lake Placid.

Breakdown

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First District: *Rob Wittman (R) vs. Shannon Taylor (D)

• 2024: Wittman +12.8, Trump +4.9
• 2025: Spanberger +2.2
• Sabato Crystal Ball rating: Leans Republican

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Second District: *Jen Kiggans (R) vs. Elaine Luria (D)

• 2024: Kiggans +3.8, Trump +0.2
• 2025: Spanberger +7.4
• Sabato Crystal Ball rating: Toss-up

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Third District: *Bobby Scott (D) vs. TBA

• 2024: Scott +40.2, Harris +34.5
• 2025: Spanberger +42.4
• Sabato Crystal Ball rating: Safe Democrat

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Fourth District: *Jennifer McClellan (D) vs. TBA

• 2024: McClellan +34.9, Harris +32.9
• 2025: Spanberger +36.6
• Sabato Crystal Ball rating: Safe Democrat

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Fifth District: *John McGuire (R) vs. Tom Perriello (D)

• 2024: McGuire +15.0, Trump +12.2
• 2025: Earle-Sears +6.6
• Sabato Crystal Ball rating: Likely Republican

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Sixth District: *Ben Cline (R) vs. Beth Macy (D)

• 2024: Cline +28.3, Trump +23.8
• 2025: Earle-Sears +17.4
• Sabato Crystal Ball rating: Safe Republican

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Seventh District: *Eugene Vindman (D) vs. Tara Durant or Doug Ollivant (R)

• 2024: Vindman +2.7, Harris +2.7
• 2025: Spanberger +14.2
• Sabato Crystal Ball rating: Likely Democrat

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Eighth District: *Don Beyer (D) vs. TBA

• 2024: Beyer +46.8, Harris +49.2
• 2025: Spanberger +60.3
• Sabato Crystal Ball rating: Safe Democrat

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Ninth District: *Morgan Griffith (R) vs. Adam Murphy or Joy Powers (D)

• 2024: Griffith +45.2, Trump +42.9
• 2025: Earle-Sears +36.6
• Sabato Crystal Ball rating: Safe Republican

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Tenth District: *Suhas Subramanyam (D) vs. Julie Perry, Sam Wong or Dave Beckwith (R)

• 2024: Subramanyam +4.6, Harris +8.5
• 2025: Spanberger +20.3
• Sabato Crystal Ball rating: Safe Democrat

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Eleventh District: *James Walkinshaw (D) vs. TBA

• 2024: Connolly +34.8, Harris +35.0
• 2025: Walkinshaw +50.4, Spanberger +47.1
• Sabato Crystal Ball rating: Safe Democrat