Augusta County Courthouse: What will the voters decide?

The conventional wisdom on the Augusta County Courthouse referendum has the voters casting their lot with the proposed move to Verona.

Don’t count on that actually happening.

We in the news media and politics think the rest of the world is as attuned to the ins and outs of the minutiae that we work together to spew out as we are, but reality check, they’re not.

What will doom the courthouse move, which is backed by six of the seven sitting members of the Augusta County Board of Supervisors, is that lack of attention from large swaths of voters in what will otherwise be a large turnout election cycle.

Obvious stuff there, right? It’s a presidential election year, so we can guess turnout upwards of 70 percent of the registered voter base.

The two sides on the courthouse issue, pro and con, have done their best to make a peep in all the noise around Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, but for many the thought that they will put into the vote will come down to reading the proposed referendum when they get into the voting booth today.

Augusta County being Augusta County, with a turnout for Trump likely in the 75 percent range, you’d have to expect, for the referendum to pass, tens of thousands of conservative voters who haven’t given the courthouse a first thought, much less a second thought, to be willing to commit $45 million toward a new courthouse that many will never step a foot into.

The ins and outs of the issue are immaterial. OK, so maybe if the referendum fails, a court-appointed panel can force the county’s hand on what to do to address security, space and accessibility needs.

Maybe it is more cost-effective in the long run to spend $45 million on a new courthouse than to commit $10-15 million on renovations that will only kick the can down the road for a few years.

Throw this vote into an off-year election, when the folks who show up to vote are those who have studied the issue and want to weigh in, and you probably get a very different result than the one you’re going to see tonight.

The one you’re going to see tonight is going to shake up the political leaders in Augusta County.

Column by Chris Graham