The good news: Viewed from a long-term perspective, the local economy grew significantly in the first decade of the 21st century, just shy of 30 percent regionwide as a measure of total taxable sales by locality from 2000-2009.
The not-so-good news: The growth seems to have passed Staunton by, also significantly.
The really-not-so-good news: Yep, we’ve seen some retraction from the highs of 2007 and 2008.
First, to the long-term perspective. The local economy as a measure of total taxable sales in 2000 was valued at $866.5 million; by 2009, we had grown into a billion-dollar-plus economy, at $1.124 billion all told.
It’s the best approximation of GDP for local economies that I can find out there.
The biggest growth over the long term, no question, has been in Waynesboro, where the economy nearly doubled in size over the decade, from $223 million in economic activity in 2000 to $401 million in 2009. The growth was most pronounced in two two-year periods – from 2003-2004, which saw a spike from $221 million in economic activity in 2003 to $288 million in economic activity in 2004, and from 2005-2006, which saw growth from a $302 million economy in 2005 to a $369 million in economy in 2006.
The numbers for calendar-year 2009 have Waynesboro as the top local economy of the three at $401 million in economic activity in the calendar year, outpacing Augusta County for the first time in large part due to a serious drop in economic activity in the county, which lost just shy of $50 million from its local economy from 2008 to 2009.
Looking inside the numbers there, more than half of the decline comes in two main economic areas – merchant wholesaling and building equipment and garden equipment and supplies dealers.
The long-term trend in the county is still quite positive. Augusta County registered $316 million in economic activity in 2000 and $394 million in economic activity in 2009, a growth rate over the period of 24.8 percent.
Staunton’s long-term trend isn’t nearly as positive. The economic-activity numbers in 2000 and 2009 are almost identical, in fact – the 2000 economic-activity number at $326.6 million, and the 2009 number at $328.4 million, for a growth rate for the period at one-half of 1 percent.
Worse is the retraction in the Staunton economy from 2007-2009. In 2007, Staunton registered a high of $371.5 million in economic activity; the drop to $328.4 million by 2009 represents a retraction of 11.6 percent.
That retraction seems to be continuing into 2010 for all three localities, according to numbers for the first quarter of 2010. Waynesboro registered economic activity at $95.7 million in the first quarter of 2010, an annualized rate of $382.8 million for the year. Economic activity in Waynesboro in the first quarter of 2009 was at $102.4 million, for comparison sake.
Staunton’s number for the first quarter of 2010 was at $75.6 million, an annualized rate of $302.4 million. Economic activity in Staunton in the first quarter of 2009 was at $91.1 million.
Augusta County had $88.4 million in economic activity in the first quarter of 2010, an annualized rate of $353.6 million. Economic activity in the cuonty in the first quarter of 2009 was at $95.8 million.
Story by Chris Graham. Chris can be reached at [email protected].