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ACC Men’s Basketball Primer: What to know as conference play starts to heat up

Scott Ratcliffe

acc basketballAs the temperatures drop and the calendar creeps towards another new year, it can only mean one thing — Atlantic Coast Conference men’s basketball season is about to heat up.

There have been a few surprises throughout the first six weeks of the mostly nonconference season. Most notably, North Carolina — the team that was not only the media’s favorite to win the ACC, but also the preseason No. 1 team in the nation — is currently on the outside of the Top 25, looking in.

Florida State, which was picked to finish fifth in the conference, has stumbled to a 3-win start, while Louisville has also struggled mightily, dropping its first nine contests before finally getting in the win column recently.

Virginia won its first eight games, including a pair against ranked opponents, and climbed all the way up to No. 2 in the polls before falling to former-No. 1 Houston over the weekend.

Duke is getting along just fine so far without Mike Krzyzewski, as his replacement Jon Scheyer has led the young Blue Devils to a 10-2 start. Virginia Tech and Miami, meanwhile, have both moved into the national rankings and look to give the conference two more formidable NCAA Tournament participants come March.

Below, we’ll take a look at how each ACC school has performed thus far, including a few bigtime wins and some head-scratching losses, how teams stand in the rankings and tournament projections, and which players to keep an eye on as ACC competition begins to heat up.

North Carolina Tar Heels

Preseason ACC finish prediction: 1st

Current record: 8-4 (1-1 ACC)

KenPom rating: 19 (10 AdjO; 56 AdjD)

NET ranking: 25 (1-4 vs. Quad 1 opponents)

Latest Bracketology projection: 6-seed

Recap: Much was made in the offseason of nearly the entire UNC roster returning after a national runner-up finish. Things were going smoothly until the Heels hit a four-game skid (Iowa State, then-No. 18 Alabama, then-No. 10 Indiana and Virginia Tech) a few weeks back and fell all the way out of the top 25 after spending the first three weeks at the top. Reigning — and preseason — ACC Player of the Year Armando Bacot and Caleb Love were both first-team All-ACC preseason selections, while RJ Davis made the second team. All three are in the top 10 on the ACC scoring list, with Love leading the league at 18.3 points per game (3.7 apg). Bacot, a senior center who is also the conference’s top rebounder (11.6 rpg), is fourth with a scoring average of 17.5 points per game, while Davis, a third-year guard, ranks 10th at 15.7 a night. Northwestern transfer Pete Nance (12.6 ppg, 6.7 rpg) has fit in nicely with his new team, and his turnaround jumper to send the game to overtime helped the Heels upset then-No. 23 Ohio State over the weekend. Coach Hubert Davis certainly has the weapons to make another postseason run, and despite the early-season hiccups, Carolina should still be dancing in a few months.

No. 14 Duke Blue Devils

Preseason ACC finish prediction: 2nd

Current record: 10-2 (1-0)

KenPom rating: 14 (18; 22)

NET ranking: 12 (3-2 vs. Q1)

Latest Bracketology projection: 3-seed

Recap: No Coach K? No problem. Filling the shoes of college basketball’s all-time winningest coach, Scheyer has thus far continued the winning tradition in Durham. Duke’s only two losses on the season came against Purdue (the nation’s No. 1 team) and Kansas (No. 4). Freshman star 7-footer Kyle Filipowski (14.8 ppg, 9.2 rpg) leads the team in both categories, while All-ACC preseason first-teamer Jeremy Roach (13.1 ppg, 3.6 apg) provides a veteran presence. Another freshman, Dereck Lively II (4.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.0 bpg) hasn’t quite lived up to his preseason second-team accolades, but a few other freshmen have made significant contributions, including Mark Mitchell (9.5 ppg), Tyrese Proctor (8.2 ppg) and Dariq Whitehead (6.7 ppg), while Northwestern transfer Ryan Young (7.0 ppg, 6.6 rpg) and Illinois transfer Jacob Grandison (5.9 ppg) are chipping in as well.

No. 6 Virginia Cavaliers

Preseason ACC finish prediction: 3rd

Current record: 8-1 (1-0)

KenPom rating: 11 (11; 27)

NET ranking: 16 (2-1 vs. Q1)

Latest Bracketology projection: 3-seed

Recap: The Cavaliers are coming off of their only loss of the season against a tough, top-5 Houston team. Virginia has gotten solid play from all around, with Jayden Gardner leading the team in both scoring and rebounding (11.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg). Fellow super-senior Kihei Clark (11.3 ppg, 5.3 apg) is second in the ACC in assists, while junior big man Kadin Shedrick has been a force defensively down low, averaging 9.9 points, 4.6 boards, 1.9 blocks (5th in the league) and 1.4 steals. Junior guard Reece Beekman (9.3 ppg, 4.7 apg, 1.4 spg) was playing the best basketball of his Cavalier career before suffering a hamstring strain earlier this month, and he should be a force on both ends when healthy. Senior guard Armaan Franklin (10.9 ppg) started out with a bang, scoring a career-best 26 points in the win over Baylor in Las Vegas, but has cooled off considerably over the past few games as he continues to search for consistent production. Ohio grad transfer Ben Vander Plas (6.8 ppg) has been up and down in his sixth-man role, but his experience and size have played a key role in the team’s success, while true freshmen Isaac McKneely and Ryan Dunn have stepped into big minutes. The Hoos have all the pieces to keep themselves at or near the top of the league standings.

No. 22 Miami Hurricanes

Preseason ACC finish prediction: 4th

Current record: 11-1 (2-0)

KenPom rating: 48 (12; 123)

NET ranking: 60 (1-1 vs. Q1)

Latest Bracketology projection: 8-seed

Recap: Jim Larrañaga’s Hurricanes have been impressive after advancing to the Elite Eight back in March. Preseason All-ACC first-team guard Isaiah Wong ranks sixth in the conference with a scoring average of 16.7 points per game, while his 4.4 assists per contest ranks seventh in the ACC, and his 1.9 steals average is good for fourth. Jordan Miller is a nice backcourt complimentary piece, averaging 15.1 points per game (13th in ACC) and 6.1 rebounds. Speaking of rebounds, Arkansas State transfer Norchad Omier is third in the conference with 9.9 per game to go with his 13.8 points and team-high 1.2 blocks per night. Kansas State transfer Nijel Pack has been another reliable contributor with 11.3 points per game.

Florida State Seminoles

Preseason ACC finish prediction: 5th

Current record: 3-10 (1-1)

KenPom rating: 146 (159; 152)

NET ranking: 256 (0-3 vs. Q1)

Latest Bracketology projection: None

Recap: It’s been rough sledding for veteran coach Leonard Hamilton’s Seminoles, who dropped their first four games and nine of their first 10, falling on their home floor to such teams as Stetson and Troy. Despite the poor start, don’t be surprised to see FSU give the top teams a battle on any given night.

Central Florida transfer Darin Green Jr. leads the team in scoring at 14.2 ppg, and his 46-percent clip from long range ranks second in the conference.

Matthew Cleveland (13.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg), Caleb Mills (12.2 ppg, 3.5 apg) and Cam’Ron Fletcher (10.8 ppg, team-best 7.5 rpg) have all been productive, and the Noles are eagerly awaiting the debut of Spanish freshman big man Baba Miller, who is serving a 16-game suspension for accepting illegal travel benefits prior to his college eligibility. He’s expected to join the team in a few weeks, and should provide an immediate boost for the struggling Seminoles as they try to turn their season around.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Preseason ACC finish prediction: 6th

Current record: 7-4 (0-1)

KenPom rating: 102 (39; 223)

NET ranking: 181 (0-1 vs. Q1)

Latest Bracketology projection: None

Recap: Coach Mike Brey brings another one of his “old,” experience-laden teams to do battle this season, as four of his main seven contributors are  fifth-year seniors. One of those veterans, 6-foot-10 forward Nate Laszewski, leads the Fighting Irish in both scoring (15.4 points per game, 11th in the ACC) and rebounding (7.9 rebounds per game, tied for sixth). In addition, Cormac Ryan (12.7 ppg), Dane Goodwin (12.0 ppg) and fourth-year senior Trey Wertz (10.4 ppg, team-leading 3.8 apg) have all been consistent contributors, while a pair of talented freshmen, guard JJ Starling (12.6 ppg) and forward Ven-Allen Lubin (6.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg) have shown flashes of their potential. After concluding the month of November with a 6-1 record and an upset of then-20th-ranked Michigan State, it’s been a rough December for the Irish, as they’ve lost 3 of their last 4 games.

No. 21 Virginia Tech Hokies

Preseason ACC finish prediction: 7th

Current record: 11-1 (1-0)

KenPom rating: 24 (17; 52)

NET ranking: 19 (3-1 vs. Q1)

Latest Bracketology projection: 5-seed

Recap: The Hokies have been one of the league’s most successful teams so far after winning the ACC Tournament for the first time in 2021-22. Sophomore guard Sean Pedulla leads the team in scoring — with an average of 17.3 points per game (fifth in the ACC) — and assists (4.0 apg, tied for 10th). Senior forward Grant Basile, a transfer from Wright State, has helped fill the void down low after Tech lost Keve Aluma to graduation in the offseason. Basile is averaging 14.0 points, 5.6 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game. Senior forward Justyn Mutts, a preseason All-ACC second-team choice, does a little of everything, averaging 12.8 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.7 steals per contest. Senior guard Hunter Cattoor averages 10.0 points a game, as he, Pedulla and Basile have combined to hit 76 of the team’s 99 made 3-pointers. Expect the Hokies to remain towards the upper-half of the ACC standings.

Syracuse Orange

Preseason ACC finish prediction: 8th

Current record: 8-4 (1-0)

KenPom rating: 81 (69; 94)

NET ranking: 150 (0-1 vs. Q1)

Latest Bracketology projection: None

Recap: Longtime Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim, the winningest active head coach in college hoops, is in his 46th year at the helm, and while he no longer has a family member on his roster (his sons Buddy and Jimmy both graduated), he has a “Big Three” leading this year’s squad. Senior guard Joseph Girard III is the Orange’s top scorer with 15.2 points per game, while freshman sensation Judah Mintz (14.9 ppg, 4.0 apg) leads the conference with 2.1 steals a night. Senior center Jesse Edwards (14.9 ppg, 11.3 rpg), meanwhile, is first in the ACC in blocks per game with 3.0. Coming off of their first losing season since 1968-69, the Orange are hoping to get back to their winning ways.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Preseason ACC finish prediction: 9th

Current record: 8-4 (0-1)

KenPom rating: 91 (76; 119)

NET ranking: 100 (1-1 vs. Q1)

Latest Bracketology projection: None

Recap: Coach Steve Forbes had the tough task of replacing Alondes Williams and Jake Laravia, after those two helped lead the Demon Deacons to their first winning season in four years. Florida transfer Tyree Appleby has stepped right into that star leadership role for Wake, as he ranks third amongst ACC players with an average of 18.0 points per game and 5.1 assists per game. Sophomore guard Cameron Hildreth (12.0 ppg, team-high 6.3 rpg) and junior sharpshooter Damari Monsanto (10.4 ppg, 40 percent from 3) have also been steady scorers, with Delaware transfer forward Andrew Carr (10.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg) providing a lift down low. The Deacs will have their first opportunity for a big ACC upset at home tonight against Duke.

NC State Wolfpack

Preseason ACC finish prediction: 10th

Current record: 10-3 (0-2)

KenPom rating: 54 (38; 72)

NET ranking: 49 (0-2 vs. Q1)

Latest Bracketology projection: First Four Out

Recap: Sophomore guard Terquavion Smith has proven time and again why he was a preseason All-ACC first-team selection. He’s second in the scoring category with 18.2 points per contest, leads the league in assists with 5.5 a game, has a 35-percent success rate from long range (fifth), and also averages 2.0 steals per game (third). Smith has scored in double figures in all 13 of the Wolfpack’s games. Ole Miss transfer Jarkel Joiner (16.6 ppg) ranks eighth in scoring, while former Cavalier Casey Morsell (13.4 ppg) has found his stroke in Raleigh, as he currently leads the league in 3-point percentage (34 for 73, 47 percent). La Salle transfer Jack Clark (8.8 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 2.1 spg) and Utah transfer Dusan Mahorcic (8.7 ppg, 6.6 rpg) have been solid additions in the frontcourt, along with Winthrop transfer D.J. Burns Jr., who’s averaging 8.8 points and 4.6 boards. Do the Wolfies have what it takes to get back into the field of 68 for the first time since 2018?

Clemson Tigers

Preseason ACC finish prediction: 11th

Current record: 9-3 (1-0)

KenPom rating: 66 (46; 88)

NET ranking: 93 (0-1 vs. Q1)

Latest Bracketology projection: None

Recap: It seems like Clemson coach Brad Brownell has been on the proverbial “hot seat” for quite some time, but he’s got the Tigers off to a decent start. It all revolves around junior guard Chase Hunter (14.9 ppg, 4.8 apg) and senior forward Hunter Tyson (14.5 ppg, 9.0 rpg), who have carried the load offensively. Junior center PJ Hall (12.1 ppg) and Boston College senior transfer guard Brevin Galloway (10.3 ppg) have also provided a lift, with senior guard Alex Hemenway (9.8 ppg) knocking down a team-high 27 triples heading into ACC play. Clemson handed Wake Forest a 20-point loss earlier this month in the opener, and the Tigers should be competitive throughout the campaign.

Louisville Cardinals

Preseason ACC finish prediction: 12th

Current record: 2-9 (0-2)

KenPom rating: 245 (301; 160)

NET ranking: 344 (0-1 vs. Q1)

Latest Bracketology projection: None

Recap: It’s been a long season already for first-year head coach Kenny Payne, as his alma mater has been on the wrong end of several bad losses. After falling at home against Bellarmine, Wright State and Appalachian State to start the season, the Cardinals went on to drop their next six before finally getting back-to-back wins against Western Kentucky and Florida A&M. If there’s been any sort of “bright spot” for Louisville, it’s been senior point guard El Ellis, as he is averaging 16.6 points (seventh in the ACC) and 4.4 assists per game (eighth). He’s the only UL player averaging double-figures scoring. Junior forward Jae’Lyn Withers (8.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg) and Tennessee transfer forward Brandon Huntley-Hatfield (8.1 ppg, 6.0 rpg) have been improving in the interior, as the Cardinals look to build some momentum in conference competition.

Boston College Eagles

Preseason ACC finish prediction: 13th

Current record: 6-6 (0-1)

KenPom rating: 175 (275; 90)

NET ranking: 246 (0-1 vs. Q1)

Latest Bracketology projection: None

Recap: The Eagles are in their second year under head coach Earl Grant, and have lost four of their last five games heading into ACC action. Sophomore guard Jaeden Zackery is BC’s top scorer, putting up 11.3 points per contest, while Division-II grad transfer CJ Penha Jr., a 6-7 forward from Trevecca Nazarene, has provided a spark with 10.3 points a night. Senior guard Makai Ashton-Langford and his brother, junior DeMarr Langford, have combined for 17.6 points a game, while senior forward T.J. Bickerstaff leads the team in the rebound category with 7.3 per contest.

Pitt Panthers

Preseason ACC finish prediction: 14th

Current record: 8-4 (1-0)

KenPom rating: 72 (59; 82)

NET ranking: 75 (2-1 vs. Q1)

Latest Bracketology projection: None

Recap: The Panthers have been one of the most surprisingly successful teams in the conference, as Ole Miss junior transfer guard Blake Hinson (team-highs of 16.5 ppg, 6.9 rpg) and senior guard Jamarius Burton (14.9 ppg, 4.2 apg) both rank in the top 20 among ACC scorers. After a 1-3 start, the Panthers have won 7 of their last 8 contests, including a 68-60 win at NC State in the conference opener on Dec. 2. Two grad-transfer guards, Greg Elliott (Marquette) and Nelly Cummings (Colgate), have combined to average 21.3 points a game, as

Cummings’ team-leading 4.7 assists per game is tied for fifth in the league. If Pitt can squeeze out a few more quality wins over the next few weeks, Jeff Capel’s team could finally get over the hump and avoid a seventh-straight losing season.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Preseason ACC finish prediction: 15th

Current record: 7-4 (0-1)

KenPom rating: 105 (134; 97)

NET ranking: 115 (0-4 vs. Q1)

Latest Bracketology projection: None

Recap: Picked to finish last just two years after winning the ACC Tournament, Josh Pastner’s Yellow Jackets have been led by a trio of sophomores, Miles Kelly (13.3 ppg), Dallan Coleman (10.1 ppg) and Jalon Moore (9.9 ppg, 5.9 rpg). Tech stumbled to a 12-20 overall record and 14th-place conference finish a year ago, and lost Michael Devoe and Jordan Usher to graduation in the spring. The Jackets have won three of their last four games heading into Wednesday’s matchup with Clemson, as they attempt to avoid the ACC cellar.

This Week’s Schedule

Tuesday

  • Lipscomb at Louisville, 6 p.m. (ACCNX)
  • Duke at Wake Forest, 6:30 p.m. (ACCN)
  • Virginia at Miami, 8:30 p.m. (ACCN)
  • Pitt at Syracuse, 9 p.m. (ESPNU)

Wednesday

  • Virginia Tech at Boston College, 6:30 p.m. (ACCN)
  • Michigan vs. North Carolina, 7 p.m. (ESPN)
  • Clemson at Georgia Tech, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
  • Notre Dame at Florida State, 8:30 p.m. (ACCN)

Thursday

  • Louisville at NC State, 7 p.m. (ACCN)

Scott Ratcliffe

Scott Ratcliffe

Scott Ratcliffe has worked as a freelance writer for several publications over the past decade-plus, with a concentration on local and college sports. He is also a writer and editor for his father’s website, JerryRatcliffe.com, dedicated to the coverage of University of Virginia athletics.