Poll: Hillary Clinton back in lead after conventions

2016 presidentA new national poll taken after the conclusion of the Democratic National Convention has Hillary Clinton back on top in her race with Donald Trump.

The Public Policy Polling survey has Clinton at 46 percent to 41 percent for Trump, with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson at 6 percent, and Green nominee Jill Stein at 2 percent.

In a head-to-head, Clinton leads Trump 50 percent to 45 percent.

A key factor for Clinton is the boost in her net favorability among voters. She’s still in the negative, with 45 percent holding a favorable view and 51 percent holding an unfavorable view, but that -6 net favorability is a nine-point improvement over her net -15 rating a month ago, when 39 percent of voters viewed her favorably, and 54 percent viewed her unfavorably.

Trump is at a net -22, with 36 percent holding a favorable view of him, and 58 percent holding an unfavorable view, a slight nudge from the 35 percent favorable/58 percent unfavorable split a month ago.

More good news for Clinton: the sliver of voters still considering themselves undecided leans Democratic. The 5 percent who are uncommitted give President Obama a 55 percent/33 percent favorable split, and they would split in a hypothetical Obama-Trump presidential race 59 percent/10 percent in favor of Obama.

These voters are the much written about Bernie Sanders voters, who view Clinton (4 percent favorable/83 percent unfavorable) and Trump (2 percent favorable/89 percent unfavorable) with similar disdain.

With the rest of us set on how we’re going to vote, this is the group that the untold hundreds of millions of dollars on negative TV ads will be directed toward in the coming weeks and months.

The other factors in the race are more than favorable for a Democratic win in November. Democrats come out of the convention season with an advantage in favorability (a 45 percent/48 percent favorable split, to 38 percent/55 percent for the GOP), and voters saying by a 53 percent-44 percent margin that they’d vote for Obama over Trump in a head-to-head.

The Russia issue that Trump continues to harp on is also a loser for the Republican nominee. Only 14 percent of voters view Russia favorably, with 7 percent viewing Russian leader Vladimir Putin favorably, and 52 percent of voters say they’re less likely to vote for a candidate if it is perceived that Russia is trying to help them win.

One other issue that won’t go away: 62 percent of voters think Trump needs to release his tax returns. And of course, he’s not going to, no matter how much the public wants him to.

Story by Chris Graham


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