Home You’re not going to like hearing this: But the Nats made the right move in trading Juan Soto
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You’re not going to like hearing this: But the Nats made the right move in trading Juan Soto

Chris Graham

washington nationalsWashington Nationals GM Mike Rizzo, in trading Juan Soto to San Diego for five top prospects on Tuesday, is conceding that what he termed a “reboot” at the trade deadline last year needs to be a full rebuild.

It gets more obvious every day, with the Nats sitting right now at 35-69, the worst record in MLB, with a league-worst -172 run differential.

That’s what happens when you spend the better part of a decade in contention, using the minor league system to shore up the roster at the big-league level, giving up guys like Lucas Giolito (48-44, 4.31 ERA, 10.5 WAR in seven MLB seasons, with an All-Star Game appearance in 2019), Felipe Vazquez (17-13, 89 saves, 2.61 ERA, 8.2 WAR in five MLB seasons, was a two-time All-Star reliever in Pittsburgh, now in prison), Nick Pivetta (38-46, 5.07 ERA, 5.2 WAR in six MLB seasons, 8-8, 4.47 ERA in Boston this season), Reynaldo Lopez (34-40, 4.51 ERA, 4.2 WAR in seven seasons, 4-2, 2.98 ERA with the White Sox this season), Dane Dunning (8-16, 4.35 ERA, 1.7 WAR in three MLB seasons), Taylor Hearn (10-13, 5.05 ERA, -0.7 WAR in six MLB seasons), and Jesús Luzardo (11-15, 5.12 ERA, 0.3 WAR in four MLB seasons, 2-4, 3.97 ERA in Miami this season).

You can’t fault the results. Giolito, Lopez and Dunning netted Adam Eaton, an important piece in the 2019 World Series run. Luzardo was part of the deal for Sean Doolittle, who saved 29 games for the 2019 Nats, while Vazquez and Hearn got Rizzo Marc Melancon, who had 17 saves and a 1.82 ERA for the 2016 NL East champs.

Now comes the reckoning

Rizzo began the teardown at the 2021 trade deadline with the trade of Max Scherzer and Trea Turner that got back in return Josiah Gray (7-7, 4.59 ERA, in 19 starts in 2022), catcher Keibert Ruiz (3 HR, 23 RBI, .642 OPS in 2022), along with minor-leaguers Gerardo Carrillo (currently the #7 prospect in the Nats’ system) and Donovan Casey (currently the #18 prospect in the Nats’ system).

I don’t know what Rizzo was thinking when he said last year that he envisioned this as a “reboot” as opposed to a rebuild. Maybe he was expecting something more than almost nothing out of Stephen Strasburg, who has pitched in eight MLB games, one this season, since signing the seven-year, $245 million deal to stay in D.C. after the 2019 World Series, and the less than nothing that the Nats are getting out of Patrick Corbin (4-15, 6.57 ERA, -2.0 WAR, getting paid $23.4 million this year, still due $59.8 for 2023-2024).

If those two were anywhere near where you’d expect, a rotation with a good Strasburg and Corbin, a young Gray, maybe throw in 2022 #1 prospect Cade Cavalli (4-3, 4.03 ERA in AAA in 2022), maybe not this year, but next year, and certainly by 2024, Soto’s walk year, could be something to build around.

It’s entirely possible that Strasburg has pitched his last MLB game, and Corbin, whose sharp decline has been vexing, because it’s not due to a decline in velocity, is a latter-day version of Chris Davis, a guy with a huge contract that is impossible to move.

There, in fact, had been speculation that Rizzo would want to pair Corbin with Soto in whatever deals were being thrown around this year, but Rizzo made it clear last week in a radio interview that he didn’t want to go that route, preferring to get as close to full value for Soto as he could.

That said, these kinds of deals never work out for the team trading away the superstar. I did an analytical piece on this last month, when word first came down that Rizzo was entertaining trade offers for Soto, and the closest thing to an even trade of the eight that I analyzed (dating back to the 2007 trade of future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera) is last year’s Nats-Dodgers deal, and that’s only because we’re just a year into it.

The Cabrera deal is the closest comparison to Soto, in that Cabrera, like Soto, was a young star (Cabrera was 24; Soto is currently 23) with a solid resume (138 HR, .938 OPS for Cabrera through five seasons; 119 HR, .966 OPS for Soto through five).

The Marlins got a whole lot of nothing in return for Cabrera – six guys who gave Florida a total of 0.9 WAR.

What did the Nationals get back in return for Soto?

On paper, a lot.

Left-handed pitcher MacKenzie Gore was San Diego’s top prospect in 2020, but he struggled with mechanics in 2020 and 2021 before rebounding and earning an MLB roster spot in 2022. Gore has gone 4-4 with a 4.50 ERA with the Padres in 2022, though he’s currently on the injured list with inflammation in his throwing elbow, and San Diego manager Bob Melvin had said over the weekend that Gore was being shut down with a return set for September.

Shortstop CJ Abrams was San Diego’s top prospect in 2021, and like Abrams earned a callup to the big-league club in 2022, with mixed results so far – two homers, 11 RBI and a 232/.285/.320 in 139 plate appearances.

Abrams will take over at short for the Nats, allowing Luis Garcia (3 HR, 20 RBI, .286/.292/.413 slash line for the Nats in 2022) to move to second, his natural position.

Outfielder Robert Hassell III was the Padres’ #1 prospect heading into 2022, and had 10 homers and a .299/.379/.467 slash line in High-A, and would be expected to get a chance to compete for a MLB roster spot in spring training next year.

Another outfield prospect, 6’7”, 240-pound James Wood, was ranked #3 in the Padres’ system heading into 2022. Currently in Low-A, Wood has hit 10 homers with a .337/.453/.601 slash line. His ETA for the bigs is 2025.

Another projected 2025 big-leaguer is the final piece in this trade, 6’6”, 235-pound right-hander Jarlin Susana, the #14 prospect in the Padres’ system heading into 2022, who sits in the mid- to upper-90s with his fastball that he complements with a mid- to upper-80s slider and a low-80s curveball.

Still in Rookie ball, Susana has posted a 2.45 ERA in 29.1 innings this season, with 44 strikeouts and 11 walks and a .155 opponent batting average.

Outlook

With Soto gone, the pressure is off to try to build a winner around him that could keep him in D.C. past the end of his team control at the end of the 2024 season.

The goal now is to be back on the verge of being a contender by 2025, with Gray, Gore, Cavalli and the team’s #3 prospect Cole Henry (1-0, 1.71 ERA in nine games in Double-A and Triple-A in 2022) anchoring the rotation, Abrams and Garcia anchoring the middle infield, perhaps Brady House, the franchise’s #1 draft pick in 2021, moving over from shortstop to third, and Hassell and Wood settled into the corner outfield spots.

The eyes are on the future, and you’re not going to like to hear this, may have a hard time accepting it, but it’s true: there wasn’t a future with Soto.

Once he turned down the biggest contract offer in MLB history, the best that was going to happen was that we’d get two more seasons of him putting up nice numbers on bad teams, then walking after the 2024 season.

It’s going to be hard to watch the Nats limp to the finish line in 2022 without Soto or Josh Bell (14 HR, .301/.384/.493 slash line in 2022), with a lineup of a couple of young guys around Nelson Cruz (8 HR, .233/.315/.346 slash line in 2022) and Luke Voit (13 HR, .225/.317/.416 slash line in San Diego in 2022), who was the other guy in the Soto/Bell trade, who will almost certainly be gone at the 2023 trade deadline, traded to another contender for a Low-A backup catcher and a box of sunflower seeds.

Hard as it will be to have to endure the next couple of years, this is where things needed to go.

Hey, you won’t have trouble finding good seats at a good price in the meantime.

Chris Graham

Chris Graham

Chris Graham is the founder and editor of Augusta Free Press. A 1994 alum of the University of Virginia, Chris is the author and co-author of seven books, including Poverty of Imagination, a memoir published in 2019, and Team of Destiny: Inside Virginia Basketball’s Run to the 2019 National Championship, and The Worst Wrestling Pay-Per-View Ever, published in 2018. For his commentaries on news, sports and politics, go to his YouTube page, or subscribe to his Street Knowledge podcast. Email Chris at [email protected].