A new survey from the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington finds Vice President Kamala Harris (D) and former President Donald Trump (R) in a tight race for president in Virginia.
Harris had the support of 47 percent of 756 Virginia likely voters in the poll compared to 46 percent who favor Trump in the survey of 1,000 adult respondents.
The survey was conducted for UMW’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies by Research America Inc. from Sept. 3-9, so, before the Sept. 10 ABC News debate.
Several third party and independent candidates received a total of 4 percent support, but the remaining likely voters said they were undecided.
A question that asked likely voters only about the major party nominees provided results that also remained well within the margin of error: 48 percent favored Harris and 46 chose Trump.
Among all survey respondents, the two major party nominees were tied at 44 percent each. Roughly 5 percent said they were undecided, and the remainder said they support a third-party or independent candidate or planned not to vote.
“This new survey suggests Virginia should be getting a much closer look from both presidential campaigns,” said Stephen J. Farnsworth, UMW professor of political science and director of UMW’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies. “Virginia may deserve to be treated as a ‘swing state’ once again this year.”
The survey ended before the September 10 presidential debate.
Results showed that 20 percent of Virginians are most concerned with the economy and jobs, 19 percent said inflation, 19 percent said threats to democracy, 13 percent said immigration and five percent said abortion.
Democrats who responded to the survey were more likely to be concerned with threats to democracy and abortion and Republicans were focused more on the economy.
Since President Joe Biden decided to end his campaign for re-election as president, Farnsworth said some Virginia surveys offered differing results. Some found a margin that favored Harris that was greater than the survey’s margin of error and others identified a very close presidential contest in Virginia.
“Given the range of findings in Virginia surveys over the past two months, the Harris and Trump campaigns may be paying far too little attention to the Commonwealth,” Farnsworth said. “Virginians have a history of bouncing back and forth between the parties.”
According to Farnsworth, Biden defeated Trump in 2020 by a 10-point margin in Virginia. In 2021, Republican Glenn Youngkin was elected governor by a 51 percent to 49 percent margin.
Virginians in the new survey said they approve of Youngkin’s job performance by a 46 percent to 34 percent margin. Biden’s job performance received 37 percent of approval from survey respondents and 53 percent disapproval.
Defections by partisan are little evident in the survey. Ninety percent of partisans showed support for their party’s nominee. Virginians who are Independent were roughly split evenly between the two major party candidates.
In the contest for U.S. Senate seat in Virginia, 49 percent favor Sen. Tim Kaine, the Democratic incumbent, and 43 percent support Hung Cao, the Republican challenger. In the entire 1,000-person sample, 45 percent favored Kaine and 38 percent backed Cao.
Early voting began today in Virginia. Election Day is Tuesday, November 5, 2024.
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Rebecca Barnabi
