Home Quick math: It would take about 9K voters for Merritt Hale to pull the upset
News

Quick math: It would take about 9K voters for Merritt Hale to pull the upset

Chris Graham
merritt hale
Merritt Hale. Photo: www.merritthaleforcongress.com

I was voter #153 in the Ward B precinct at the Waynesboro Public Library at around 5:45 p.m. Tuesday, casting my lot for Merritt Hale in his Republican primary challenge to Sixth District Congressman Ben Cline.

Doing some quick math, I project voter turnout in the 3.5 percent range district-wide, which would amount to roughly 17,000 votes being cast up and down the Interstate 81 corridor in today’s primary.

Think about that for a second. What that would mean is it would only take around 9,000 voters for Hale, a 28-year-old running in his first political race, to pull the upset of the two-term incumbent.

Cline played what you might think is the safe strategy, in essence barely if at all acknowledging that there even was a primary, putting whatever little attention he has on 2022 on the November race against Democratic nominee Jennifer Lewis.

It’s almost certainly going to work out for Cline, but …

We’re only talking about 9,000 people needing to drive themselves to the polls today, or casting absentee or early votes in the last couple of weeks, to turn that safe strategy into a disaster.

Like we say in sports, there’s a reason they play the games. You don’t count the W until you’ve actually played it and won.

Support AFP




Chris Graham

Chris Graham

Chris Graham is the founder and editor of Augusta Free Press. A 1994 alum of the University of Virginia, Chris is the author and co-author of seven books, including Poverty of Imagination, a memoir published in 2019. For his commentaries on news, sports and politics, go to his YouTube page, TikTok, BlueSky, or subscribe to Substack or his Street Knowledge podcast. Email Chris at [email protected].

Latest News

vdot road construction
Local

VDOT: Updated road work scheduled for the week of July 6-10

Donald Trump FIFA Peace Prize
Etc.

Trump called FIFA president to get reversal on suspension: The bloom is off the USMNT rose

We’ve now officially entered the U.S. is cheating! phase of the 2026 World Cup, with word that Donald Trump personally appealed to FIFA President Gianni Infantino to lobby for a reversal of the one-game suspension for USMNT star Folarin Balogun.

charlottesville map
Local

Charlottesville: Updates for road work ongoing the week of July 6-10

The Charlottesville Department of Utilities is kicking off Phase I of the West Main Street Utilities Replacement Project on Monday, July 6.

fair carnival flag ferris wheel fireworks circus tent election
U.S. & World

Alon Ben-Meir: America at 250 faces a reckoning, and a call to conscience

staunton
Local

Staunton: John Glover retires as city building official after 31 years with local government

radio
Local

Last Week in Rob Schilling: The point has been made, so, time to move on

Folarin Balogun
Etc.

World Cup: USMNT gets leading goal scorer back in shock FIFA move