Home Quick math: It would take about 9K voters for Merritt Hale to pull the upset
Local News

Quick math: It would take about 9K voters for Merritt Hale to pull the upset

Chris Graham
merritt hale
Merritt Hale. Photo: www.merritthaleforcongress.com

I was voter #153 in the Ward B precinct at the Waynesboro Public Library at around 5:45 p.m. Tuesday, casting my lot for Merritt Hale in his Republican primary challenge to Sixth District Congressman Ben Cline.

Doing some quick math, I project voter turnout in the 3.5 percent range district-wide, which would amount to roughly 17,000 votes being cast up and down the Interstate 81 corridor in today’s primary.

Think about that for a second. What that would mean is it would only take around 9,000 voters for Hale, a 28-year-old running in his first political race, to pull the upset of the two-term incumbent.

Cline played what you might think is the safe strategy, in essence barely if at all acknowledging that there even was a primary, putting whatever little attention he has on 2022 on the November race against Democratic nominee Jennifer Lewis.

It’s almost certainly going to work out for Cline, but …

We’re only talking about 9,000 people needing to drive themselves to the polls today, or casting absentee or early votes in the last couple of weeks, to turn that safe strategy into a disaster.

Like we say in sports, there’s a reason they play the games. You don’t count the W until you’ve actually played it and won.

Chris Graham

Chris Graham

Chris Graham, the king of "fringe media," a zero-time Virginia Sportswriter of the Year, and a member of zero Halls of Fame, is the founder and editor of Augusta Free Press. A 1994 alum of the University of Virginia, Chris is the author and co-author of seven books, including Poverty of Imagination, a memoir published in 2019. For his commentaries on news, sports and politics, go to his YouTube page, or subscribe to his Street Knowledge podcast. Email Chris at [email protected].