Home Quick math: It would take about 9K voters for Merritt Hale to pull the upset
News

Quick math: It would take about 9K voters for Merritt Hale to pull the upset

Chris Graham
merritt hale
Merritt Hale. Photo: www.merritthaleforcongress.com

I was voter #153 in the Ward B precinct at the Waynesboro Public Library at around 5:45 p.m. Tuesday, casting my lot for Merritt Hale in his Republican primary challenge to Sixth District Congressman Ben Cline.

Doing some quick math, I project voter turnout in the 3.5 percent range district-wide, which would amount to roughly 17,000 votes being cast up and down the Interstate 81 corridor in today’s primary.

Think about that for a second. What that would mean is it would only take around 9,000 voters for Hale, a 28-year-old running in his first political race, to pull the upset of the two-term incumbent.

Cline played what you might think is the safe strategy, in essence barely if at all acknowledging that there even was a primary, putting whatever little attention he has on 2022 on the November race against Democratic nominee Jennifer Lewis.

It’s almost certainly going to work out for Cline, but …

We’re only talking about 9,000 people needing to drive themselves to the polls today, or casting absentee or early votes in the last couple of weeks, to turn that safe strategy into a disaster.

Like we say in sports, there’s a reason they play the games. You don’t count the W until you’ve actually played it and won.

Featured Video

 




Chris Graham

Chris Graham

Chris Graham is the founder and editor of Augusta Free Press. A 1994 alum of the University of Virginia, Chris is the author and co-author of seven books, including Poverty of Imagination, a memoir published in 2019. For his commentaries on news, sports and politics, go to his YouTube page, TikTok, BlueSky, or subscribe to his Street Knowledge podcast. Email Chris at [email protected]. Support AFP by signing up for our newsletter and/or powering our work with a one-time or monthly contribution.

Latest News

acc football
Football

ACC Football: Just one weeknight game this week, late night on the Left Coast

golf
Go 'Hoos

Golf: UVA’s Jaclyn LaHa leads ‘Hoos to win at Canadian Collegiate Invitational

UVA Golf fourth-year Jaclyn LaHa followed a stellar opening day with a final-round 1-over 73 to win the Canadian Collegiate Invitational at Beacon Hall Golf Course on Tuesday.

damin altizer
Basketball, Go 'Hoos

UVA Basketball: Roussell hires UVA alum Damin Altizer to coaching staff

Damin Altizer, a Millboro native and Bath County High School alum who was a walk-on with the UVA Basketball team in the 2006-2007 season, has been hired to the staff of women’s head coach Aaron Roussell as director of player development.

uva football tony elliott
Football, Go 'Hoos

Game preview: What UVA Football fans need to know about Delaware

Colin Scott Kelley
Local

62-year-old Augusta County man arrested, in custody on child sex charges

nfl
Football

My one-man boycott of the NFL over genocide isn’t going to work, but anyway

jail prison mental health involuntary confinement
Region/State

Grand jury indicts Charlottesville man in two alleged assaults of federal cops