Virginia, considered a swing state, is swinging blue for U.S. Sen. Mark Warner in his reelection drive this year and for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton if she runs for the White House in 2016, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Sen. Warner tops former White House aide Ed Gillespie, a possible Republican challenger, 46 – 31 percent, with 6 percent for Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
Virginia voters say 49 – 36 percent that Warner deserves reelection. They approve 55 – 33 percent of the job he is doing and have a 49 – 30 percent favorable opinion of him. For the other candidates, 64 percent don’t know enough about Gillespie to form an opinion and 80 percent don’t know enough about Sarvis.
Secretary Clinton squeaks by new jersey Gov. Christopher Christie 45 – 41 percent and tops other possible Republican contenders in the 2016 presidential race:
47 – 39 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
48 – 42 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
49 – 41 over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
“U.S. Sen. Mark Warner passes for the closest thing to a household name in Virginia politics. He has a strong job approval rating and is flirting with the magic 50 percent threshold that generally marks an incumbent as a heavy favorite for re-election,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
“Ed Gillespie is no stranger to politics – but not in the Old Dominion. His extensive background in national politics will help him raise money but he’s going to need a lot of it to introduce himself to Virginia voters.”
“Interestingly, Virginian voters say 33 – 15 percent they would be less likely rather than more likely to vote for Warner if President Barack Obama campaigns for him,” Brown added.
Quinnipiac University Poll/March 27, 2014 – page 2
“Secretary Hillary Clinton’s lead over new jersey Gov. Christopher Christie, top-seeded among Republicans, is only four points, smaller than in other recent Quinnipiac University surveys. Whether that means the ‘bridgegate’ impact on Gov. Christie is fading in the rear-view mirror, only time will tell.”
Virginia voters give Clinton a 52 – 44 percent favorability rating, compared to 39 – 35 percent for Huckabee and split decisions for the other Republicans:
38 – 38 percent for Christie;
35 – 36 percent for Bush;
36 – 35 percent for Paul.
President Obama’s Approval
Virginia voters disapprove 52 – 44 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, with a 55 – 41 percent disapproval of the way he is handling the economy and a similar 55 – 40 percent disapproval for his handling of foreign policy.
Voters oppose the 2010 Affordable Care Act 52 – 44 percent and say 45 – 31 percent that they are less likely rather than more likely to vote for a U.S. Senate candidate who supports the health care law. Voters say 42 – 25 percent they are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports a minimum wage hike and say 40 – 27 they are less likely to vote for a Senate candidate who supports a path to citizenship for illegal aliens.
“President Obama’s support in Virginia, which he narrowly carried in his re-election, remains stuck in negative territory, with his 58 – 36 percent disapproval among independent voters the big reason why,” Brown said.
“The president gets the same negative ratings for his handling of the economy and foreign policy. His economy numbers have been in the dumpster for some time, but nationally his foreign policy numbers have remained good. It would be reasonable to assume that the current crisis involving Russia and the Ukraine may well be responsible for the low foreign policy grade.”
From March 19 – 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,288 voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.