The United States has never chosen a woman as a major party candidate for president. This could change in a few months if Hillary Clinton secures the necessary number of delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination. Although Americans routinely tell pollsters they’re ready to elect a woman, it remains an open question whether gender is playing a role in shaping candidate preferences in the 2016 contest. The most recent national survey of registered voters from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind finds evidence that gender does indeed affect who voters tell pollsters they favor in a head to head contest between the top remaining candidates.
Proof of this can be seen in a question order experiment. Half of the sample was asked a series of questions about gender before being asked whom they’d support in hypothetical match ups pitting Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders against Republicans Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and John Kasich. The remaining half of the sample was asked the candidate preference questions before the gender questions. Questions concerning gender are:
Please tell me which of the following statements best describes your feelings, even if neither is perfect:
- The obstacles that once existed for women to succeed in politics are largely gone OR Women still experience obstacles that make it difficult for them to succeed in politics.
- The fact that a woman is a leading candidate for her party’s nomination is something that is not likely to occur again any time soon OR There are many women today who are likely to become a major party candidate for president.
- In your opinion, does the news media evaluate women candidates more harshly than male candidates, treat women the same as male candidates, or are women candidates evaluated less harshly than male candidates?
- Just your best guess, currently what percent of Congress do women represent?
The effect of gender is considerable. Support for Hillary Clinton is, on average, 13 percentage points higher when voters are primed to consider questions of gender as compared with those who indicated their favored candidate after the gender questions were posed.
In a head-to-head with Donald Trump, Clinton receives the support of 58 percent of voters to Trump’s 31 percent in the primed condition, and Clinton receives the support of 45 percent to Trump’s 37 percent in the unprimed condition. In a Clinton/Cruz matchup, Clinton’s 56 percent eclipses Cruz’s 33 percent in the primed condition, but she loses her lead in the unprimed condition (39 percent versus 44 percent). Her lead is smaller relative to those for Trump and Cruz in a matchup with Kasich in the primed condition (47 percent versus 41 percent). And, similar to Cruz, her lead disappears in the unprimed condition, with Kasich garnering the support of 41 percent of voters to Clinton’s 38 percent.
“If it’s Clinton and Trump in November, our data suggests she’ll do well against him regardless of whether gender is a campaign issue. However, if it’s Cruz or, less likely, Kasich, it looks like talking about gender could help turn opponents into supporters,” said Krista Jenkins, professor of political science and director of PublicMind.
The effect of priming on Clinton is more consequential among men than women. On average, Clinton does 12 percentage points better against her possible general election opponents among primed men as compared with unprimed male respondents.
As for women, gender remains salient, although the effect is less than that compared with men. On average, Clinton receives a 7.6 percentage point boost among primed women over unprimed women.
Overall, there is mixed evidence regarding whether Clinton’s gender will hurt or help her presidential run. Although today’s results indicate that Clinton’s support increases when gender is made salient, other gender concerns can work against her. For example, arecent PublicMind survey found that men who consider the threat that a female President might pose to traditional gender roles are substantially less likely to support Clinton.
Raising questions of gender before asking about candidate preference also appears to help Bernie Sanders. On average, those primed with the gender questions offer five percentage points more support for the Vermont senator as compared with those in the unprimed condition.
“It looks like Democrats across the board benefit from an environment where gender is made salient,” said Jenkins.
Among Republicans, with the exception of John Kasich, whose support does not change as a consequence of the gender prime, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are hurt more than they are helped in the question order experiment. Trump loses an average of 5.5 percent support in the unprimed condition with Cruz losing an average of 6.5 percent.
“When the opponents are Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, a discussion of gender appears to work to the detriment of all of the Republicans vying for their party’s nomination,” said Jenkins.
However, the effect is not universal among men and women. Among men, average Trump support decreases 10 percentage points when respondents are primed to think about gender; similar numbers are observed for Ted Cruz (9.5 points). For Kasich, he loses an average of 8.5 points in the unprimed condition.
Among women, the picture is more complex. Gender helps Trump gain an average of 4.5 percentage points and 2.5 percentage points for Cruz. Among Republicans, John Kasich is helped the most. Women give him an average boost of 8.5 percentage points when they are asked to consider questions of gender before indicating their preference.
The same survey finds a majority of registered voters are convinced women candidates have it harder than men when it comes to politics. Sixty-one percent believe obstacles remain that make it more difficult for women to who run for public office, with 34 percent who say the obstacles are largely gone. However, when it comes to the media, opinion is divided over whether women are treated more harshly or treated equally, with 20 percent who believe the media treats women in a way that’s easier than their male colleagues.
As for whether another woman will likely succeed Hillary Clinton to win a major party nomination in the not-too-distant future, 71 percent believe there are many others poised to follow in her footsteps. Only a quarter (24%) say Clinton is a once in a lifetime phenomenon.
And, when asked how many women currently are serving in Congress, the average response is not too off the mark. The actual percentage is 19.4, and the average response was 21 percent.
Finally, the survey finds little evidence for the belief that older and younger women evaluate the importance of gender differently. Although there are some percentage differences, those younger than 50 and 50 and older have similar ideas about the difficulty (or lack thereof) that women face in politics, do not differ very much in their perception of media coverage of women candidates and politicians, and are of similar minds regarding the likelihood of other successful female candidates for president.
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