Inside the Numbers: What do you need to know about Oregon?

Oregon is a 12 seed. Easy win. Right? Nah.

The Ducks (25-12) have won 10 straight, and remind me of one of those Harold Deane-era UVA teams from the early to mid 1990s. The ones that had Cory Alexander, and then didn’t, and had to adjust to life without him, and eventually did.

The 1995 ‘Hoos, after losing Cory to whatever that year’s malady was, regrouped and upset a #1 seed, Kansas, in the Sweet Sixteen, before losing a tight one in the Elite Eight to Arkansas, falling just short of a surprise Final Four.

Ahem. Sorry to do that to you.

This Oregon team was supposed to feature the ubertalented 7’2” freshman Bol Bol, a projected one-and-done first-round pick, who ended up playing just nine games before going down with a foot injury.

Even with Bol, the Ducks were a middling 6-3, with an early loss to Texas Southern standing out.

A 9-9 stretch followed that dropped Oregon to 15-12 overall, and 6-8 in the weak Pac 12, on the heels of three straight losses to teams (Oregon State, USC, UCLA) that would be nowhere near the NCAA Tournament bubble in March.

The Ducks’ 90-83 loss to UCLA on Feb. 23 is their last, to this point.

Oregon has won 10 straight, and has had to.

No way Oregon is in the NCAA Tournament without having won the Pac 12 Tournament, which required a four-game run, including wins over NCAA Tournament participants Arizona State and Washington, both of whom were gone after the first weekend of the Big Dance.

Oregon then upset #5 seed Wisconsin, winning 72-54 on Friday, and defeated #13 seed Cal-Irvine 73-54 late Sunday.

Now at 25-12, Oregon, ranked 67th in the KenPom.com rankings after the Feb. 23 loss to UCLA, is now 28th, the equivalent of a seven seed.

Defense!

As with Virginia, Oregon’s success starts and ends on the defensive end.

The Ducks are ranked 15^th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com, giving up 92.2 points per 100 possessions.

They’re big – the average height on the floor is 78.5”, per KenPom.com, 15^th nationally.

Kenny Wooten, a 6’9” sophomore, averages just 6.5 points and 4.8 rebounds per game, but his blocked-shot numbers are eye-popping – 2.2 per game, in just 23.6 minutes per game.

Think: Mamadi Diakite, a year younger, a year less developed on offense.

Wooten helps fuel a defense that ranks 19th nationally in opponent effective field-goal percentage (46.5 percent) and is also 44th in opponent turnover percentage (21.0 percent).

Also scary good: opponents shoot just 29.1 percent on threes, sixth-best nationally,

The weakness is defensive rebounding: opponents rebound 28.7 percent of their own misses, ranking Oregon just 202nd nationally in that metric.

Offense

Oregon doesn’t quite play a Virginia snail pace, but averages just 64.1 possessions per game, 328th nationally, so, close.

The Ducks average 109.7 points per 100 possessions, 74^th nationally.

Louis King, a 6’9” freshman, is the focal point on the offensive end, averaging a team-best 13.4 points per game, shooting 43.6 percent from the floor, and 37.9 percent from three, on 4.8 three-point attempts per game.

Payton Pritchard, a 6’2” junior guard, is the ignition to the engine, averaging 13.0 points and 4.6 assists per game, shooting 42.3 percent from the floor, and 33.3 percent from three, on 5.2 three-point attempts per game.

Paul White, a 6’9” senior, is the other key guy on offense for Oregon, averaging 10.6 points a game on 45 percent shooting from the floor and 37.8 percent from three, on 3.9 three-point attempts per game.

Depth

Looking at the box scores for Oregon’s Pac 12 Tournament final win over Washington, and then the NCAA Tournament wins over Wisconsin and Cal-Irvine, it appears that coach Dana Altman has shortened his rotation to seven.

He does have nine healthy players averaging double-digit minutes this season, so there is a little more depth to call on if needed.

Story by Chris Graham