If you’ve been monitoring the weather, you can’t miss the coverage of a tropical storm as the National Hurricane Center begins to issue forecast advisories for the system. Most models do not show a landfall on U.S. mainland, but the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico could be impacted, according to weather experts.
While it may seem like the hurricane season is off to a fast and furious start, a Virginia Tech meteorologist said the total number of named hurricanes and tropical storms are expected to be average. However, she also expects to see a higher-than-average number of storms going through rapid intensification where sustained winds grow quickly in a 24-hour period.
Stephanie Zick, an assistant professor of geography in the College of Natural Resources and Environment, said her prediction is due to the above average sea surface temperatures, similar to Hurricane Ian in 2022.
“There is a developing El Niño, which generally leads to above average wind shear that hinders hurricane development and there are above average sea surface temperatures, and generally supports more hurricane development,” said Zick who is a researcher in tropical meteorology, tropical cyclones, precipitation, numerical weather prediction and model forecast verification.
With rapid intensification, there may be less time to prepare for the worst, especially for families living on the coast.
People who live in coastal areas should make preparations now before a storm hits, she said.
“At the coast, the threat is usually the greatest due to higher winds and storm surge flooding,” Zick said. “Before a storm makes landfall, there is also a higher risk of dangerous surf and rip currents.”
Flooding from the rain is possible near the coast, but also inland as the storm moves. Tornados are also possible.
No matter where you live, Zick said you should know your risks and have an emergency plan and kit.
“In the past 10 years, flooding has caused the most fatalities in landfalling tropical systems,” Zick said. “The hazards associated with tropical storms can occur hundreds of miles away from the storm center.”
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
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Crystal Graham
