Just for kicks, let’s take a look at how the bullpen measures up for this Washington Nationals team, which looks to be solid for one of the two NL wild-card spots, at 85-69 going into the final week of the 2019 regular season.
How about an MLB-worst ERA of 5.83, for starters?
This, on the heels of another bullpen implosion, in which the Nats gave up four runs in the seventh in a 5-3 loss to Miami on Sunday.
ERAs are only a detail in a larger story, of course.
For a better picture, you need to look at the collective WAR of the ‘pen.
How much better does WAR have Washington’s record if you could magically replace the current guys with what would be considered replacement-level relievers?
Doing some math here: surprisingly, less than a single win.
The bullpen collectively rates -0.6 WAR,. the bulk of the value coming from Sean Doolittle (1.0 WAR), the aforementioned Suero (0.8) and closer-du-jour Daniel Hudson (0.6).
Keep those guys, and replace the rest of the chuckers with replacement-level guys, and you squeeze out three more wins.
Still not enough to catch NL East champ Atlanta (96-60), whose bullpen ERA is 4.24, 10th-best in MLB in 2019.
The Braves’ bullpen WAR in 2019 is 2.1.
The Nats are still at best six back, basically, with both teams having replacement-level bullpens.
They’d at least be set for the wild card, not having work to do with eight to go.
Story by Chris Graham
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