The budget reconciliation bill will likely not be approved by the U.S. Senate as quickly as President Donald Trump would like, according to a Virginia Tech political scientist.
“Although President Trump is urging quick action, that may not be likely given questions about the contents of the hastily amended legislation,” said Karen Hult, a professor of political science at Virginia Tech. “The bill, which passed by a vote of 215-214, includes considerable fodder for celebration and outrage.”
The 1,118-page megabill, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed the U.S. House of Representatives by a single vote early Thursday morning. Trump would like to see the reconciliation bill on his desk for his signature by July 4.
“There is no time to waste,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
Like the House, the Republicans also have a majority in the U.S. Senate, outnumbering Democrats 53-47. A simple majority is needed to pass the legislation.
Sen. Ron Johnson, a third-term Republican from Wisconsin, compared the bill to “the Titanic” at an event in Washington last week, and said he believes his colleagues want to see a “return to reasonable pre-pandemic spending.”
Other Republican Senators are on the record questioning cuts to Medicaid and plans to end clean energy tax credits.
While the entire House is on the ballot next year, and may have folded due to pressure from Trump, Johnson said the Senate can withstand the pressure with only 22 Republican senators up for re-election.
Some Senators have said they may start from scratch in drafting their own resolution bill instead of line-editing the House version.
Hult: Winners and losers in budget reconciliation bill
The winners in the bill’s passage, according to Hult, are House Speaker Mike Johnson and advocates for expanded border enforcement.
The losers, Hult said, are state and local government officials as well as recipients of government assistance.
“At the same time, the bill includes deep cuts and accelerated work requirements for Medicaid and SNAP — with obvious concerns for current recipients, and for state and local government officials faced with administering these changes and coping with their effects,” Hult said.
The Congressional Budget Office reports the legislation would boost the deficit by more than $2.3 trillion by 2034 which could lead to higher interest rates on the debt and cuts to Medicare, which provides health care for disabled persons and senior citizens.
“Stock and bond markets almost immediately reacted,” Hult said. “This, of course, is taking place while many businesses, employees, and consumers remain uncertain about the levels and effects of tariffs and cuts in federal programs and work forces.”
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Read more political insights from Hult on AFP.
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Crystal Graham
