Virginia, 1-5 at the midway point to its 2023 season, has, on its second-half schedule, games with three teams in this week’s AP Top 25, one that was just knocked out of the national rankings, and the two Techs.
Today we turn to our friends at the ESPN Football Power Index, the dreaded (by the ACC Network’s Mark Packer, anyway) FPI, for guidance on how those games might go, and thus what we might be able to expect in terms of a final record for our Cavaliers for the season.
Saddle up.
And no, this is not going to be fun.
Chris Graham on UVA Football
First, this weekend, at North Carolina, which is at 6-0 and ranked 10th nationally.
FPI gives the Tar Heels a 94.3 percent win probability.
We’ll go ahead and count this one as a loss, for the purposes of our analysis.
Next weekend, Virginia heads to Miami, which is currently on a two-game bender, including a beatdown in Chapel Hill and an inexplicable last-minute loss at home to Georgia Tech.
FPI has Miami at a 93.6 percent win probability.
That feels a bit high, honestly, considering the way the ‘Canes played in the loss to Georgia Tech and then this past weekend at UNC, but we’ll go with a loss, though tighter than the win probability would suggest.
The weekend of Nov. 4, Virginia gets Georgia Tech at home, which will be nice, playing at home, for the first time in nearly a month.
FPI has the Ramblin’ Wreck at a 66.9 percent win probability.
Should we put this one into the toss-up category?
(Checks notes, Bowling Green beat GT by 11 in Atlanta.)
Sure, why not.
Then it’s back on the road at Louisville, ranked 21st in this week’s AP poll, though the Cardinals are coming off an ugly 38-21 loss to one-win Pitt this past weekend.
FPI’s current calculus: 90.4 percent chance of a Louisville win.
Duke is next. The Blue Devils are 5-1 and ranked 16th in this week’s poll.
The L was a last-minute defeat to Notre Dame, which just waxed Southern Cal.
FPI: Duke, 87.9 percent.
The season finale is the other Tech, Virginia Tech, at home, two days after Thanksgiving.
The Hokies looked god-awful early on, but they’ve won two of their last three, beating Pitt and Wake Forest by double-digits, sandwiched around a 39-17 loss to #4 Florida State.
Which means, dammit, they’re playing well.
FPI has them at a 66.2 percent win probability.
Remember that the Hokies have won something like 99 of the last 100 in this series, and that a lot of those have been when the teams were even strength, some of those in years when Virginia was clearly better.
When you look at the final six through the eyes of FPI, then, ugh.
Virginia’s best win probability is in the range of 33-ish percent in the games with the Techs, both of which are at home.
The other games are, on paper, squash matches.
Best case looks to be 3-9.
FPI projects 2-10, so, the computer is thinking Virginia sneaks a win against one of the Techs.
If things go according to the projections, though, 1-11 is staring us straight in the face.
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Chris Graham
