Or can you? We don’t know because of what we don’t know. And that is the problem. So we take chances thinking that the more we know the better our chances of success. And that creates an even bigger problem – one that allows us to believe that we are smarter than we really are.
We forget about randomness. We forget what we don’t know. We forget that events, both good ones and bad ones, those well planned and those without any planning, just happen.
Why? Why can’t we better control over our lives, both private and public, and just let the good times roll? One answer is that we interpret everything in our lives solely on how we see the rest of the world. We have no other choice.
The best example I ever read on how each of us views the world differently – and therefore take different risks – is when Yankee slugger Joe DiMaggio tried to be Yankee fan Joe DiMaggio and took his four year old son, Joe Jr., to a game. One fan noticed the Yankee icon. Then others. Soon everyone in the stadium was chanting, “Joe, Joe, Joe DiMaggio!” DiMaggio was moved. He looked down at his small son to see if he had also noticed the tribute. He had. “See, Daddy,” said the little DiMaggio, “everyone knows me.”
This incident tells us that everything we know is packaged within a thin layer of skin. And it makes us thickheaded. Our personal package always leaves out far more than it includes, whether you are Joe, Jr. or Joe, Sr. It leaves us only knowing what is inside, not what is out there in the hearts and minds of others. Then to make matters worse we foolishly think we can overcome this human shortcoming by learning more and controlling more.
Sorry. It ain’t so. Much of our success and failure is simply a product of the law of randomness. It doesn’t matter what type of choices we make, big or small, whether in sports, politics, investments or our careers. There is always that factor of randomness that which is beyond our control.
That is why I cringe whenever I hear the word “upset” used in announcing football scores, as was done last fall when Appalachian State beat Michigan. What we were really saying to ourselves is that the outcome was a fluke, otherwise we would have known. Sure.
Believe it or not, there are things we don’t know. Nor never will. Still we keep fooling ourselves because of a deep-seated need not be surprised – and to convince ourselves that we are smarter than the other guy.
Take election returns, for example. We report them as “as expected” or “as a surprise.” The latter results we don’t much care for. Or take the financial market’s recent free fall. “Experts” would get on the tube and try to explain what happened that day when they never had a clue the day before. If they had the so-called experts would all be fabulously rich. And so would we. Selecting stocks by throwing darts at a board has been proven at times to produce better results than research conducted by Harvard MBAs.
Man needs to be in control. So he spends his time and resources to determine the best track to take to any important destination. Let’s use politics for this example. Over the next several months millions of dollars will be spent on who will be Virginia’s next governor. Maybe ten bucks per vote cast. Maybe double. Will it be well spent? Not nearly as well as the fundraisers will tell the contributors.
Virtually all selling is based on the false premise that with enough market research any ad campaign will be a success. I trust that you are enjoying your New Coke and driving your new Edsel.
If you were to ask me what one thing I learned while working in that government town north of here, it is this: Resource allocation decisions are made at the wrong level. Our federal tax dollars are spent not by those with the best experience, information and intuition, but because someone in Washington told them to do so. There is very little Southern humility in that Northern town. That is why government becomes overbearing. It thinks it knows better.
And so it goes. We all think we know more than the worker on the assembly line. So Washington has taken over Detroit’s job. Maybe it is because our parents keep telling us that if we go to the right schools we will know more and whatever we choose to do in life will not involve undue risk. That is why mom and dad will spend close to $200,000 to send their kid to Washington and Lee University. Just don’t tell them that the chance of success after graduation is subject to a factor over which they have no control.
A final question: Do you think people will ever change and accept their limitations based on the law of randomness? Fat chance.
– Column by David Reynolds
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