Analysis: Youth vote could swing congressional races in Fifth, 10th

Will young voters help shape the next congressional delegation from Virginia? A new index ranks two districts in Virginia among the top congressional races in the country where young people could have a significant influence on the outcome this year.

The Youth Electoral Significance Index Top 50 was developed exclusively by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE) – the preeminent, non-partisan research center on youth engagement at Tufts University’s Jonathan M. Tisch College of Civic Life.

Taking into account the competitiveness of the congressional races, as well demographic characteristics, the number of higher education institutions in the district, and historical youth turnout data, the index highlights districts in Virginia where young people are poised to have a disproportionately high impact this year.

“Young people can shape our elections and the make-up of our Congress, but their potential is limited when campaigns don’t reach out to them,” said Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg, Director of CIRCLE. “We hope this tool encourages campaigns, media outlets, and advocates in Virginia – and in many other states – to engage young people on issues that matter to them.”

Key findings include:

• Virginia, a highly competitive swing state, has two congressional districts on the Top 50 list: the Virginia 10th and 5th.
• The Virginia 10th Congressional district, which includes Frederick and Loudoun Counties, as well as Manassas, is a race to watch this fall. The district has more than 85,000 young potential voters and boasts high education levels, with more than half of the district’s adult population holding a college degree. It is also a diverse district: one quarter of its residents speak a language other than English at home; and 12%, each, are Latino and Asian.
• The Virginia 5th, located in the center of the state and including Charlottesville, is the largest district in Virginia, covering an area larger than the state of New Jersey. There are about 116,000 young eligible voters, and the district has a significant African American population (21%). Although the district has relatively few residents with college degrees (24%), youth turnout was high in 2012. The district is home to about 67,000 college students.