You can stop talking about Notre Dame coming in and saving the ACC from the last 14 years of its TV deal with ESPN.
That dog, as they say where I’m from, in the mountains of Virginia, won’t hunt.
Notre Dame is reportedly seeking $75 million a year from NBC when its current TV deal with the network expires in 2025, a significant uptick from the $22 million a year that the school is getting for its football TV rights currently.
As the reporting on this is going, NBC seems to be suggesting that it would need “shoulder programming” – either a game to put on the air before its Notre Dame broadcast, or one to air later – to be able to make the money work on its end.
That would seem to present a golden opportunity to the ACC to make some bank and address its sizable revenue gap with the SEC and Big Ten, but alas, ‘tis not to be.
Because, you see, the ACC is tethered to ESPN through 2036.
It’s looking, according to sources, that the Big 12 could help NBC out with the “shoulder programming,” which is great news for those folks, but an absolute bummer for ACC commissioner Jim Phillips, who would, of course, love to have Notre Dame as a full football member if things were to fall through with NBC.
That’s a few years down the road, unfortunately, but that doesn’t mean Phillips doesn’t get asked the Notre Dame question whenever reporters are around.
“I sat here a year ago talking about Notre Dame, and whenever I’ve been asked the question, we continue to remain close with Notre Dame. They know how we feel. They know that we would love to have them as a football member in the conference,” Phillips said Wednesday at the 2022 ACC Football Kickoff.
“But we also, and I also, respect their independence,” Phillips said. “Having worked there, having two children there, going to school right now, one a student-athlete, I know what independence means to Notre Dame. So, you respect it, and I know that if there comes a time that Notre Dame would consider moving to a conference and away from independence, I feel really good about it being the ACC.”
A key reason Phillips feels “really good” about Notre Dame maybe eventually joining the ACC is contractual. Notre Dame’s grant of rights deal with the ACC obligates the school to join the ACC as a full football member if the Golden Domers were to decide to forego their cherished independence ahead of the expiration of that grant of rights all the way out in 2036.
That likely has to factor in to the $75 million figure being thrown around with its ongoing negotiations with NBC. Notre Dame doesn’t have much in the way of leverage, given the terms of its contractual obligations with the ACC.
If the talks break down with NBC, going to the ACC is certainly an option, but as much as ESPN would love to have Notre Dame as a full ACC football member, it’s not likely that this love would manifest into anywhere near to $75 million a year kind of love.
I’m suggesting, in other words, that Notre Dame isn’t stuck on $75 million a year, while conceding the point that Notre Dame isn’t necessarily stuck to the ACC, either.
But for Notre Dame to bolt the ACC for either the SEC or Big 10, that would bring into play the reportedly $120 million or thereabouts ACC exit fee, plus the forfeiture of $11 million annually for the duration of the grant of media rights through 2036, let’s say, for sake of argument there, another $100 to $120 million.
It would take, then, Notre Dame at least five years to recoup the money lost from jumping from the ACC, which isn’t insignificant from an accounting standpoint, because we’re talking about just getting back to even there, not banking new bucks.
But as is the case with everything in the world anymore, there are people crunching and double-crunching those numbers to make them dance.
Now, maybe the people crunching the numbers at Notre Dame look out 10 years, 20 years, beyond, and see a move to the SEC or Big 10 paying off more than hanging around the water down the bathtub drain that is the ACC.
Or maybe they look at the numbers from joining the ACC as a full football member, maybe with assurance from ESPN, and see a brighter, read: brighter green, future there.
Maybe NBC decides that $75 million to Notre Dame and a few million more for the Big 12 makes sense.
That’s where this all is right now. It ain’t about football; it’s about the math.
Share
Chris Graham
