The start to Notre Dame’s season looked a lot like the start to the past several for Mike Brey, who hasn’t had a team in the NCAA Tournament since way back in 2017.
The Irish sat at 4-5 after a 64-56 loss to Indiana on Dec. 18.
Nobody, I’m sure even Brey himself, saw the 9-1 run since coming.
To be fair, there’s just one Top 50 win in the bunch, a 78-73 win over North Carolina in South Bend on Jan. 5.
Also being fair, though, you can only beat the teams they put in front of you.
The Irish (13-6, 6-2 ACC) currently sit at 72 in the flawed NET. I call it “flawed” because Virginia Tech (10-10, 2-7 ACC) is seven spots higher, without a Q1 win, and a lower RPI (ND: 67, VT: 115) and a lower non-conference strength of schedule (ND: 74, VT: 178).
I digress.
Notre Dame’s rotation guys
Brey, like Tony Bennett, goes with a seven-man rotation. The two focal points offensively are 6’6” junior Dane Goodwin (15.3 ppg, 4.9 rebounds/g, 51.2% FG, 48.9% 3FG) and 6’5” freshman Blake Wesley (15.0 ppg, 43.0% FG, 32.4% 3FG).
Goodwin, per Synergy Sports’ data, is a monster on spot-ups (57.4% FG, 79.4% AFG, 1.603 PPP), off screens (56.4% FG, 65.4% AFG, 1.244 PPP) and post-ups (57.1% FG/AFG, 1.158 PPP).
Wesley gets used a lot in pick-and-roll ball handler (104 possessions, 41.9% FG, 44.6% AFG, .808 PPP) and is sneaky-good in transition (65.5% FG, 69% EFG, 1.116 PPP).
The other double-digit scorer is 6’9” senior Paul Atkinson (11.4 ppg, 6.2 rebounds/g, 61.2% FG), a Yale transfer who gets a lot of touches in post-ups (87 possessions, 54.8% FG/EFG, 1.057 PPP) and is an excellent finisher in lane cuts (81.3% FG/AFG, 1.435 PPP) and pick-and-roll man (82.4% FG/AFG, 1.345 PPP).
6’10” junior center Nate Laszewski (8.9 ppg, 7.5 rebounds/g, 49.6% FG, 46.5% 3FG) isn’t scoring as much as he did last year (13.3 ppg), but that’s largely the result of having more options around him.
Laszewski is a tough matchup for most college fives with his ability to shoot from three.
6’3” junior point guard Prentiss Hubb (8.3 ppg, 3.6 assists/g, 34.4% FG, 30.8% 3FG) is also noticeably down numbers-wise (2020-2021: 14.6 ppg, 5.8 assists/g).
The bench guys are 6’5” junior Cormac Ryan (7.8 ppg, 4.4 rebounds/g, 39.0% FG, 36.1% 3FG) and 6’5” junior Trey Wertz (4.5 ppg, 2.4 assists/g, 35.0% FG, 31.7% 3FG).
Matchups
The matchup that concerns me the most is Laszewski against the Virginia bigs, 6’11” sophomore Kadin Shedrick (6.5 ppg, 5.1 rebounds/g, 58.5% FG) and 7’1” junior Francisco Caffaro (4.2 ppg, 4.0 rebounds/g, 50.9% FG).
Laszewski is basically a stretch five, and he’ll be a weapon in pick-and-pops (48.5% FG, 63.6% EFG, 1.263 PPP).
Last season, Laszewski averaged 20.0 points per game on 12-of-19 shooting (63.2%) in two games against the ‘Hoos.
6’7” senior Jayden Gardner (14.0 ppg, 67 rebounds/g, 52.1% FG) could get some reps against Laszewski, a danger in that he gives up four inches, but his mobility might be a plus, though you’d expect Brey to try to exploit the height disparity if Tony Bennett tries to go this way matchup-wise.
If he does, that would put Shedrick and Caffaro more with Atkinson, who is more a back-to-the-basket scorer, with whoever is in the game at five for Virginia post-to-post doubling Laszewski with Gardner if he gets the ball down low.
I imagine Bennett goes with Armaan Franklin (12.2 ppg, 41.9% FG, 25.7% 3FG) on Goodwin. Franklin rates as an “excellent” defender, per Synergy Sports, holding opponents to .690 PPP, 31.4 percent shooting from the field, and an effective field-goal percentage of 37.3 percent.
Reece Beekman (8.0 ppg, 5.0 assists/g, 43.7% FG, 33.3% 3FG) gets Wesley. Beekman is also an “excellent” defender, per Synergy Sports (.675 PPP, 32.1% FG, 39.7% AFG).
Kihei Clark (9.2 ppg, 4.2 assists/g, 39.5% FG, 38.8% 3FG) matches up with Hubb on D. Clark is a “good” defender, allowing .781 PPP, 34.8 percent shooting from the field, and an adjusted field-goal percentage of 43.9 percent.
Story by Chris Graham
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