UVA Report: State population growth slows, but not in cities

In contrast to last decade’s rapid population growth, Virginia’s growth moderated since 2010, reaching nearly 8.4 million as of July 1, 2015, according to demographers from the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, which produces the official annual population estimates for Virginia’s cities and counties.

The slowing overall growth rate is caused by a decrease in the number of people moving into Virginia, an increase in the number of deaths, and a declining birth rate. Migration to Virginia accounts for only 40 percent of population growth, compared to 50 percent a decade ago. Further, and perhaps more significant for short-term trends, is that, as the elderly population increases as a percentage of those living in Virginia, the number of deaths rises steadily. At the same time, many millennials are postponing—or even forgoing—having babies, resulting in a birth rate below what would be expected from this large cohort of peak childbearing-age adults.

Last year’s growth of 76,000 people in the Commonwealth is heavily concentrated in the urban crescent. Nearly 90 percent of population gains were in the Northern Virginia, Richmond, and Hampton Roads metro areas, and the population in most independent cities across the state has increased since 2010.

Find more of our work at www.coopercenter.org/demographics.