Last week’s 70-point night against Villanova in Baltimore seems like a fever dream for UVA Basketball fans, who have the nightmarish 42-point throwback to the 2023-2024 ‘Hoos that ran Tony Bennett out of the sport fresh in their minds.
Virginia scored 42 on 62 possessions in the 64-42 loss to #11 Tennessee on Thursday, then had 55 on 60 possessions in the 80-55 loss to #22 St. John’s on Friday.
The team that got on the plane for the Bahamas ranked in the Top 10 nationally in three-point shooting, hitting them at a 44.6 percent clip in their first three games, shot 15-of-48 (32.2 percent) from behind the arc down in paradise.
This was more reminiscent of the 2023-2024 team that shot 35.8 percent from three, and faded down the stretch, not getting out of the 40s in five of the team’s last nine games.
That fizzle precipitated an internal overhaul of the offense in the summer, the goal being to add some diversity to the base mover/blocker offense.
Inside the numbers
It all looked good in the 70-60 win over Villanova a week ago. Virginia shot 51.0 percent (25-of-49) from the field, was 14-of-25 (56.0 percent) from three.
Diving a little deeper, the Cavaliers were 5-of-9 on shots at the rim, and 6-of-15 on midrange jumpers.
That’s not a lot of shots at the rim, and a lot of midrange jumpers.
For reference on that, the UVA team last year averaged 19.1 shots at the rim per game, more than double what we saw in the ‘Nova game, and that 19.1 shots at the rim per game ranked 337th among the 362 teams nationally in the 2023-2024 season, according to Synergy Sports.
More reference: Virginia averaged 11.1 midrange jumpers per game last year, ranking 30th nationally.
Keep the reference numbers in mind as you read on.
As coincidence would have it, Virginia also had 49 field-goal attempts in the Tennessee game.
In the loss to UT, UVA was 14-of-49 from the field (28.6 percent), 6-of-20 (30.0 percent) from three, 4-of-9 at the rim, and 4-of-20 on midrange jumpers.
The statistical profile in the St. John’s loss was a mix of the two: 9-of-28 (32.1 percent) from three, 4-of-7 at the rim, and 5-of-10 in the midrange.
In both, bad numbers from three, not a lot of shots at the rim, too many in the midrange.
Another commonality in the three games: turnovers.
Virginia had 12 in the win over ‘Nova, 18 in the loss to Tennessee, and 16 in the loss to St. John’s.
Ball security was a hallmark of the Tony Bennett era, and last season, even with all the bricks being laid, the ‘Hoos averaged just 8.1 turnovers per game, the fewest in the nation.
It’s hard enough to win shooting in the 20s and 30s percentage-wise; when your turnovers are greater than or equal to your makes from the field, it’s just not going to work.
What’s going on here?
I’m trying to remind myself, this is still a new team – three of the starters are transfers, and two of the other key rotation guys are freshmen – and even the guys who are back are being asked to play a new way.
It worked against Villanova because, to be blunt, Villanova isn’t good defensively – ranked 95th nationally in adjusted defense right now, per KenPom.
Tennessee is ranked first; St. John’s is 15th.
The Tennessee and St. John’s kids were noticeably more physical – the Vols had eight steals and seven blocked shots, and a 43-34 edge on the boards; the Johnnies had 13 steals and three blocks, and a 34-26 edge on the boards.
The Virginia kids, on the other side of the coin, looked soft, maybe a factor of how they seem to be still trying to figure out where they’re supposed to be, on both ends of the floor.
That issue was pronounced in the St. John’s game – the Johnnies were 10-of-24 from three and 13-of-17 at the rim, including six dunks.
If you aren’t sure of what you’re supposed to be doing, you’re not going to do what you do with any sense of aggression.
That’s something that can be fixed, but it’s going to take game reps, and there aren’t a lot of those forthcoming that aren’t going to involve opponents from power conferences.
Bennett left behind a challenging schedule for his right-hand man, Ron Sanchez, who still has nonconference games with Florida and Memphis and then the 20-game ACC slate.
The ACC media had Virginia pegged as the fifth-best team in the conference in the preseason, which presupposed a win total in the low 20s and an NCAA Tournament bid.
KenPom.com has Virginia’s regular-season record projected at 15-16.
That’s not going to get Sanchez the job after his interim stint comes to an end at the end of the season, but you knew that already.
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Chris Graham
