Home The West needs to build Putin a ‘golden bridge’ out of Ukraine
Local

The West needs to build Putin a ‘golden bridge’ out of Ukraine

Contributors
russia ukraine
(© guteksk7 – stock.adobe.com)

“Build your enemy,” the fifth-century B.C. Chinese military philosopher Sun Tzu wrote, in The Art of War, “a golden bridge to retreat across.”

I’m not seeing the West building a golden bridge for Vladimir Putin to get out of Ukraine, which almost certainly will drag out the ongoing conflict.

Whatever you think of Putin’s mental state, he seems to legitimately think that there was a threat at his border with Ukraine, which over the past several years has been moving more and more into the orbit of the European Union economically and culturally, and NATO in terms of defense.

By current accounts, Putin’s war is not going well for him. Ukraine’s military, bolstered by volunteers from its citizenry, has been able to fight to a stalemate with Russian forces on several fronts, and NATO is reporting that the Russians have already had as many as 15,000 of their troops killed just a month into the action.

For comparison: the U.S. lost 58,220 troops in Vietnam from 1955-1975; 4,431 troops in Iraq from 2003-2020; and 2,401 troops in Afghanistan from 2001-2021.

The Russian losses are, obviously, stunning, and can only get worse, with reports of low morale and in-fighting among troops, even doubts being cast on the operation by top military leaders.

It may very well be the case that Putin could eventually assess the situation and decide to unilaterally withdraw his forces from Ukraine, but that doesn’t seem all that likely.

What is more likely is escalation – a ratcheting up of conventional bombing, the utilization of chemical weapons, even going the nuclear route, as a Putin spokesman made clear in an interview on CNN this week was not off the table.

The current regime of economic sanctions on Russia and military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine are putting obvious pressure on Putin, who took the odd step of holding a Trump-style rally last week to drum up support for the war that he won’t even acknowledge to the home folks is a war.

Pressure can’t be the only lever here.

In addition to the stick, there needs to be a carrot – perhaps a guarantee from Ukraine that it won’t seek NATO membership, as long as Russia in turn guarantees that it will recognize Ukrainian sovereignty, a quid pro quo that Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seems to be open to.

The West can play a role in shepherding whatever needs to happen in terms of negotiations, but that would require toning down the rhetoric that is being thrown around now about Putin being a war criminal and things of that nature.

All that’s going to do is back Putin deeper into the corner that he’s already boxed himself into, and with his military bogged down in Ukraine as it is, his only way out could be going the escalation route, which nobody really wants to see happen.

Build a golden bridge. At least it’s another option for keeping this from turning into a replay of the 20th century’s two world wars.

Story by Chris Graham

Contributors

Contributors

Have a guest column, letter to the editor, story idea or a news tip? Email editor Chris Graham at [email protected]. Subscribe to AFP podcasts on Apple PodcastsSpotifyPandora and YouTube.