The CAA and the RPI

Can the good times last for rising midmajor?

Story by Chris Graham
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The CAA is too good for its own good, apparently. After starting the week with William and Mary at #2 – #2! – in the weekly NCAA RPI, and Virginia Commonwealth (#18) and Old Dominion (#41) entering league play with pretty impressive power rankings in their own right, well, the conference has already started feasting upon itself.

Manic Monday saw W&M lose at home to UNC-Wilmington by a 62-61 final, and VCU lost at Northeastern 62-57, pushing the Tribe and the Rams both back between 15 and 20 spots in the updated (and unofficial) midweek RPI ratings.

That said, those teams in particular, and the Colonial as a whole, have to stand to benefit from the hot early-season runs from the CAA’s Big Three, right? Because isn’t that how the RPI works – by having individual teams’ power rating being dependent upon the power ratings of their opponents?

Right?

Not exactly, according to Jerry Palm, the editor of www.collegerpi.com.

“For the Colonial to get an at-large team in, the teams that did well in nonconference play are going to have to be the teams that do well in conference play. You’re not going to have somebody who screwed around in conference play get in based on what they did out of conference. That’s just not going to work,” Palm said.

The reality check, according to Palm, comes in the lack of depth in the CAA, which has its Big Three at the top and then a mighty-mouse four (Delaware, Georgia State, James Madison and Hofstra) with RPI ratings of 200 or higher.

“The major-conference teams can slide in with a .500 conference record because they’re building an 8-8 conference record against pretty good competition week in and week out, which isn’t true in the Colonial. The Colonial has got four teams that are 200 and up in the RPI. If you’re going 8-8 in the Colonial, you’re not doing well against the rest of your league outside of what you’re doing against those weak teams,” Palm said.

UNC-Wilmington and Northeastern are at least the fourth- and fifth-best CAA teams in the RPI ratings, if that’s any consolation. And of course the wins over William and Mary and VCU were big, big wins for those programs as they make their own case for NCAA bids, though it’s hard to imagine even at this stage in early January Northeastern at 7-7 and UNC-Wilmington at 5-8 getting hot enough to play their way onto the at-large bubble by March.

The message to the Big Three, then – take care of business.

“There is certainly an opportunity for one of these teams to get in position for an at-large bid,” Palm said. “The Pac 10 is down. The Big 10 had a disappointing nonconference performance compared to what they were expected to do. So there could be some at-large bids out there for a team from the Colonial, possibly, sure.

“I think if those teams can do well in this league, and by do well I mean win the league or come very close, then they’re going to get due consideration from the selection committee come tournament time based on what they were able to do out of conference,” Palm said.