COVID-19 in Virginia: Hospitalizations, case counts continue steady decline

The number of Virginians hospitalized with COVID-19 is at another two-month low, and the number of confirmed cases continues to drop more than a month into the phased reopen.

The Virginia Hospital & Healthcare Association dashboard puts the number of COVID-19 patients in Virginia hospitals today at 857.

That’s down 43.8 percent from the recent high back on May 29, when the dashboard listed 1,524 COVID-19 patients in hospitals in the Commonwealth.

That was a week before Gov. Ralph Northam authorized the state to move into Phase Two of his Forward Virginia plan easing restrictions imposed in his mid-March shutdown.

Northam had initiated Phase One of the slow reopen on May 15, when the COVID-19 patient number was at 1,511.

After plateauing for the first two weeks of the phased reopen, the hospitalization numbers have been consistently improving for the past three.

Also improving consistently: case counts

The seven-day moving average of new reported COVID-19 cases, according to today’s numbers from the Virginia Department of Health, is 513, and the three-day average is 450.7.

The recent peak for the seven-day moving average was back on May 31, when the measure was at 1,195.

The drop from the May 31 seven-day moving average to today is 58.8 percent.

The recent peak in the three-day average was May 25-27, when the average was at 1,335.

The drop from May 25-27 to June 16-18 is 66.2 percent.

Local numbers

Local newspaper headlines three weeks ago tried to bludgeon back into fear by telling you that cases had nearly doubled over a preceding three-week period, not noting the low raw numbers involved.

The raw numbers are still low.

The total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Augusta County, Staunton and Waynesboro dating back to mid-March is 287.

That works out to 235.6 cases per 100,000 residents. The state average is 658.8 cases per 100,000 residents.

The number of local hospitalizations cumulative over the past three months is 16, a rate of 13.1 hospitalizations per 100,000.

The state average: 67.3 hospitalizations per 100,000.

Finally, deaths: two locally, 1.6 per 100,000, state average: 18.6 per 100,000.

The local region is seeing about a third of the cases, a fifth of the hospitalizations, a tenth of the deaths.

And they want you to cower.

Story by Chris Graham