She has a slight edge in North Carolina and is pounding Trump in Virginia, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.
While wide gender and racial gaps remain, Trump’s standing among men is shrinking, especially in Georgia and Iowa, the independent Quinnipiac University Poll finds. Clinton leads by margins of 6 to 34 percentage points among likely voters who already have cast ballots in Georgia, Iowa and North Carolina, which allow early voting.
Four-way races that list both presidential and vice-presidential candidates, except Georgia and North Carolina, where Green Party candidate Jill Stein is not on the ballot, show:
- Georgia: Trump at 44 percent to Clinton’s 43 percent, with 8 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson.
- Iowa: A 44 – 44 percent Clinton-Trump tie, with 4 percent for Johnson and 1 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
- North Carolina: Clinton edges Trump 47 – 43 percent, with 5 percent for Johnson.
- Virginia: Clinton tops Trump 50 – 38 percent, with 4 percent for Johnson and 2 percent for Stein.
“Time is running out and Donald Trump has lost his leads and now is tied with Hillary Clinton in Iowa and Georgia. North Carolina appears to be moving in her direction also,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
“Virginia, which 12 years ago was a solidly Republican state, is now ‘true blue’ in its presidential ballot and one of the most Democratic states south of the Mason-Dixon line,” Brown added. “It’s clear that Donald Trump has not worn well on the voters of these four key states. Only an average of about 35 percent of likely voters in them have a favorable opinion of Trump, and more than half say they have an unfavorable view of him.
“Secretary Clinton’s favorability numbers are only slightly better – in the low to mid 40s – but that difference in favorability helps her in the horse race.”
Virginia likely voters give Clinton a negative 45 – 53 percent favorability rating. Trump gets a negative 34 – 61 percent favorability. Men are divided with 44 percent for Clinton and 41 percent for Trump. Women back Clinton 55 – 35 percent.
Clinton also leads 71 – 13 percent among non-white voters, while white voters go 48 – 41 percent for Trump. Clinton leads 91 – 3 percent among Democrats and 46 – 32 percent among independent voters. Republicans back Trump 83 – 11 percent.
“One number tells you all you need to know about why Donald Trump is doing so poorly in the Old Dominion: Only 83 percent of Republicans say they are going to vote for him, their own party nominee,” Brown said.
“That’s a very low measure of party unity. It’s fair to say history is not replete with major candidates winning an election in which they got only 83 percent of their own party members,” Brown said. “By comparison, Secretary Clinton is getting 91 percent of the Democratic vote.”