Quinnipiac Poll: Warren with narrow lead in Iowa race

2020 election

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Elizabeth Warren tops a new Quinnipiac University poll in Iowa, but the race at the top is tight among four candidates.

Warren was at 20 percent in the poll, edging Pete Buttigieg at 19 percent, Bernie Sanders at 17 percent and Joe Biden at 15 percent.

Warren has opened up a bigger lead at the top in national polls, but of course Iowa, traditional home to the first voting in the presidential nomination contest, carries weight beyond what it should, given the size and conservatism of the state’s electorate.

“A close race with a crowded field of frontrunners. While Senator Elizabeth Warren, former Vice President Joe Biden, and Senator Bernie Sanders have held top tier status in national polls for months, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg joins their ranks in the 2020 Iowa caucus. And it’s a race that is up for grabs. Half of likely Democratic caucus-goers who support a candidate say they may change their minds before Feb. 3,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow.

Those who consider themselves “very liberal,” who make up 24 percent of likely caucus-goers, are divided in their top choice with Sanders getting 32 percent and Warren at 30 percent. Those who identify as “somewhat liberal,” who make up 24 percent of likely caucus-goers, are split in their top choice between Buttigieg and Warren, with Warren at 29 percent and Buttigieg at 24 percent.

Among “moderates and conservatives,” who constitute 50 percent of likely caucus-goers, it’s a close race for the top spot between Buttigieg and Biden, with Buttigieg at 19 percent and Biden at 18 percent.

The race remains very fluid as about half, 52 percent, of those who express a first choice say they might change their mind before the caucus, while 46 percent say their mind is made up.

Sanders voters appear to be the most committed, as 61 percent of Sanders voters say their mind is made up, compared to 48 percent of Biden voters, 44 percent of Warren voters, and 40 percent of Buttigieg voters.

The top candidate quality that Iowa likely Democratic caucus-goers are looking for is “someone who can win the general election” which receives 33 percent, followed by “honesty” at 25 percent, “someone who cares about people like you” at 18 percent, “good leadership skills” at 15 percent, and only 7 percent saying “experience in public office.”

Likely caucus-goers who selected electability as most important are divided in their top choice in the caucus, with Biden, Buttigieg, and Warren each getting 21 percent.

“For Iowa caucus-goers checking the electability box as their top quality in choosing a candidate, there is no one candidate with a clear edge. Biden, Warren, and Buttigieg are tied among those ranking a 2020 win uppermost in their decision,” Snow said.

Story by Chris Graham



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