Stanford, the second and final opponent for the UVA Basketball team on its two-game West Coast swing, is big – KenPom has the Cardinal in the Top 25 nationally in the average height of its guys on the floor, at 6’6”.
The biggest of them all is 7’1” senior Maxime Raynaud, a rarity in this day and age – four years at one school, who first-year coach Kyle Smith (268-198 overall, with stops at Washington State, San Francisco and Columbia) uses as the lone big in a four-guard lineup for 12-15 minutes per game.
Raynaud (20.7 ppg, 11.6 rebounds/g, 50.6% FG, 37.5% 3FG) has developed in his four years on The Farm into a modern-day seven-footer – able to score in the paint and from three (Raynaud averages 4.8 attempts from three per game).
It’s to a point where Raynaud is the team’s second-best option from behind the arc, and it’s close between him and 6’5” junior Oziyah Sellers (14.1 ppg, 49.4% FG, 39.7% 3FG), a Southern Cal transfer.
The other guy in the Big 3 for Stanford is 6’2” senior (and Duke transfer) Jaylen Blakes (14.8 ppg, 5.3 assists/g, 45.3% FG, 32.1% 3FG).
It’s OK if you don’t remember a Jaylen Blakes having played at Duke – Blakes averaged 2.2 points in 9.3 minutes per game there in his three years.
How Virginia matches up
My guess is that Ron Sanchez starts with 6’9” freshman Jacob Cofie (8.1 ppg, 5.5 rebounds/g, 50.5% FG, 25.8% 3FG) on Raynaud.
Cofie seems to me the best option to be able to trail Raynaud from the paint to the perimeter and back.
Cofie’s issue, as always, is foul trouble (4.3 fouls/40 minutes).
If he gets into first-half foul trouble, I’d worry about having to go to 6’11” sophomore Blake Buchanan (5.1 ppg, 4.6 rebounds/g, 49.2% FG) on Raynaud, and I’m not sold on 6’8” junior Elijah Saunders (12.1 ppg, 5.3 rebounds/g, 46.3% FG, 34.1% 3FG) being able to take that job on.
Virginia will need to get more out of Isaac McKneely (11.7 ppg, 41.0% FG, 43.8% 3FG) than it got in the 75-61 loss at Cal on Wednesday, which shouldn’t be hard.
McKneely had a season-low three points on 1-of-8 shooting in 37 minutes in the loss.
It was his fourth single-digit scoring game this season.
We could also use another big game from 6’6” junior Andrew Rohde (9.4 ppg, 3.4 assists/g, 47.6% FG, 42.5% 3FG), who is averaging 13.7 points and 5.3 assists vs. 1.0 turnovers in his last three.
Forecast
- KenPom: Stanford 67-61, 69% win probability
- EvanMiya: Stanford 68-63, 66.3% win probability
- BartTorvik: Stanford 64-59, 73% win probability
- ESPN BPI: Stanford +4.1, 65.9% win probability
- Haslametrics: Stanford 65-61
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Chris Graham
