Preview: What UVA Basketball fans need to know about North Carolina

North Carolina got healthy on Wednesday in its 91-69 win over Notre Dame in Chapel Hill, with an easy win predicated on improvement on the defensive end.

After an extended stretch in which the Heels (15-4, 3-3 ACC, NET: 27) allowed opponents to shoot 50 percent from three, at volume, UNC held the Irish to an 8-of-25 (32.0%) night from behind the arc.

And that’s against a Notre Dame team that ranks 70th nationally in three-point shooting (35.9%), so, it’s not nothing.

I didn’t see anything from coach Hubert Davis about the D on threes from his postgame; maybe the Carolina media hasn’t picked up on that?

I’d be shocked if Davis and his staff hadn’t noticed.

Rotation

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The UNC offense revolves around 6’10” freshman Caleb Wilson (19.8 ppg, 10.4 rebounds/g, 1.4 blocks/g, 58.4% FG, 25.0% 3FG, 7.7 FTAs/g).

Wilson is a load around the rim – he draws 6.9 fouls per 40 minutes, which ranks in the Top 100 nationally.

That could be trouble in one-on-ones with thin seven-foot Virginia freshman center Johann Grunloh; don’t be surprised to see the thicker option in the middle, seven-foot senior Ugonna Onyenso, get more minutes going against Wilson in the post, if Grunloh struggles early.

The other Carolina big, seven-foot Arizona transfer Henri Veesaar (17.1 ppg, 9.2 rebounds/g, 1.2 blocks/g, 64.1% FG, 48.1% 3FG, 4.6 FTAs/g), also a load.

Should be a fun matchup between Veesaar, who like Wilson is a projected first-round pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, and Thijs de Ridder, who despite putting up good numbers (16.1 ppg, 6.2 rebounds/g, 53.3% FG, 38.9% 3FG), is still being viewed right now as a borderline second-round or undrafted free agent guy.

With a ton of NBA scouts in the house on Saturday, de Ridder can go get himself some bread.

Seth Trimble is the other UNC guy in their Big Three: the 6’3” senior averages 14.0 points, on 45.7 percent shooting from the field, and 29.0 percent shooting from three.

Contributors

• 6’6” junior Luka Bogavac: 9.5 ppg, 38.6% FG, 30.2% 3FG
• 6’10” junior Jarin Stevenson: 6.5 ppg, 3.7 rebounds/g, 43.0% FG, 25.5% 3FG
• 6’2” junior Kyan Evans: 5.7 ppg, 3.2 assists/g, 35.5% FG, 32.5% 3FG
• 6’5” freshman Derek Dixon: 5.5 ppg, 39.5% FG, 41.4% 3FG
• 6’6” sophomore Jonathan Powell: 4.9 ppg, 38.1% FG, 34.3% 3FG
• 6’4” junior Jaydon Young: 2.4 ppg, 38.2% FG, 35.7% 3FG

Analytics

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Data: KenPom; rankings: among 365 D1 teams

Offense
North Carolina: 1.229 PPP (28)
Virginia: 1.248 PPP (17)

Defense
North Carolina: 1.030 PPP (52)
Virginia: 0.977 PPP (17)

Tempo
North Carolina: 67.9 (164)
Virginia: 65.5 (290)

Bench minutes
North Carolina: 32.1% (194)
Virginia: 36.0% (103)

Keys to Odom Ball

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Data: KenPom; rankings: among 365 D1 teams

Threes (offense)
North Carolina: 34.1% (173)
Virginia: 37.1% (32)

Threes (defense)
North Carolina: 33.8% (171)
Virginia: 28.9% (12)

Rebounds (offense)
North Carolina: 34.5% (69)
Virginia: 40.6% (4)

Rebounds (defense)
North Carolina: 72.8% (44)
Virginia: 69.6% (159)

Turnover rate (offense)
North Carolina: 14.6% (41)
Virginia: 15.8% (101)

Turnover rate (defense)
North Carolina: 13.7% (343)
Virginia: 16.4% (221)

Game Details

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North Carolina (15-4, 3-3 ACC, NET: 27) at Virginia (16-2, 5-1 ACC, NET: 13)
Time: noon ET
TV: ESPN2 (Dave O’Brien/Cory Alexander)

Forecast

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KenPom: Virginia 80-71
BartTorvik: Virginia 80-69
ESPN BPI: Virginia +6.2