Game preview: What UVA Basketball fans need to know about NC State

I wouldn’t put too much stock into the fact that Virginia blew out NC State the first time through, 76-61, in an early January game that was 40-20 at the break.

That one had so much garbage time that I’m not sure there’s anything for us to glean.

State (19-8, 10-4 ACC, NET: 26) is currently projected as a seven or eight seed in the NCAA Tournament, so, in need of a win, to stave off any talk of being on the bubble.

Virginia (24-3, 12-2 ACC, NET: 15) could be guilty of thinking ahead – to Saturday at Duke (25-2, 13-1 ACC, NET: 2).

If there’s anything less than 100 percent on NC State, the Pack will feat.

Game Details

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NC State (19-8, 10-4 ACC, NET: 26) at Virginia (24-3, 12-2 ACC, NET: 15)
Day/Time: Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2 (Wes Durham & Dennis Scott)

ICYMI: UVA Basketball recent archives

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• UVA Basketball: Cavaliers outlast Miami, 86-83, in instant classic on Tony Bennett Day
• UVA Basketball: ‘Hoos dominant in 94-68 blowout win at Georgia Tech
• UVA Basketball: Nothing comes easy for this group; might as well embrace it
• UVA Basketball: Florida State dictated, but couldn’t finish off the upset
• UVA Basketball: Virginia grinds out win against tough Syracuse team

NC State rotation

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Darrion Williams (6’6” senior: 14.2 ppg, 5.0 rebounds/g, 2.9 assists/g, 42.2% FG, 40.4% 3FG) had a quiet day in the first game – seven points, 3-of-8 FG in 31 minutes.

Qadir Copeland (6’6” senior: 14.0 ppg, 6.8 assists/g, 50.8% FG, 42.3% 3FG, 5.3 FTAs/g) had 15 points and four assists in 34 minutes in the January matchup.

Ven-Allen Lubin (6’9” senior: 13.6 ppg, 7.0 rebounds/g, 68.9% FG) had seven points and five boards in 29 minutes in the loss in Raleigh.

Paul McNeil (6’5” sophomore: 13.4 ppg, 43.9% FG, 43.7% 3FG) had 13 points (3-of-7 FG, 2-of-6 3FG, 5-of-8 FT) in 30 minutes.

Alyn Breed (6’3” senior: 4.6 ppg, 41.5% FG, 35.7% 3FG), who had 12 points in 24 minutes in the first game, has since fallen out of the rotation – with 13 minutes of floor time in his last nine, and seven DNP-coach’s decisions.

Key contributors:

• 6’2” senior Tre Holloman: 9.7 ppg, 42.7% FG, 39.8% 3FG
• 6’6” freshman Matt Able: 8.9 ppg, 43.0% FG, 37.7% 3FG
• 6’6” junior Terrance Arceneaux: 4.0 ppg, 44.6% FG, 37.1% 3FG

Analytics: NC State vs. UVA 

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Data: KenPom and CBB Analytics; rankings: among 365 D1 teams

Points per possession

NC State offense: 1.236 PPP (20)
Virginia defense: 0.969 PPP (17)

Virginia offense: 1.228 PPP (27)
NC State defense: 1.011 PPP (39)

Threes

NC State offense: 285/720, 39.6% (3FGA/g: 57; 3FG%: 5)
Virginia defense: 173/574, 30.1% (3FGA/g: 100; 3FG%: 19)

Virginia offense: 275/764, 36.0% (3FGA/g: 33; 3FG%: 63)
NC State defense: 240/710, 33.8% (3FGA/g: 327; 3FG%: 168)

At the Rim

NC State offense: 299/410, 72.9% (FGA/g: 318; FG%: 3)
Virginia defense: 245/433, 56.6% (FGA/g: 73; FG%: 26)

Virginia offense: 346/548, 63.1% (FGA/g: 91; FG%: 149)
NC State defense: 273/411, 66.4% (FGA/g: 39; FG%: 308)

Paint 2s

NC State offense: 159/381, 41.7% (FGA/g: 30; FG%: 189)
Virginia defense: 131/349, 37.5% (FGA/g: 314; FG%: 54)

Virginia offense: 112/257, 43.6% (FGA/g: 244; FG%: 126)
NC State defense: 118/314, 40.2% (FGA/g: 252: FG%: 56)

Midrange 2s

NC State offense: 44/133, 33.1% (FGA/g: 249; FG%: 286)
Virginia defense: 82/231, 35.5% (FGA/g: 349; FG%: 150)

Virginia offense: 37/86, 43.0% (FGA/g: 329; FG%: 31)
NC State defense: 48/130, 36.9% (FGA/g: 51; FG%: 201)

Free throws

NC State defense: 21.0 FTAs/g (167); 76.2% (54)
Virginia defense: 20.2 FTAs/g (162)

Virginia offense: 21.0 FTAs/g (167); 70.5% (245)
NC State defense: 21.4 FTAs/g (226)

Rebounds

Offensive-NC State: 27.9% (273)
Defensive-Virginia: 71.4% (87)

Offensive-Virginia: 39.4% (4)
Defensive- NC State: 70.5% (125)

Turnover rate

NC State offense: 13.3% (10)
Virginia defense: 16.1% (227)

Virginia offense: 15.9% (120)
NC State defense: 18.9% (69)

Analysis

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UVA and State get similar percentages of their points from threes; State gets more of its points in the paint outside of the circle on floaters and short jumpers, which isn’t as efficient.

State also shoots more midrange twos, which are also less efficient.

Virginia is the better rebounding team on both ends.

Slight advantage to Virginia on defense.

Forecast

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KenPom: Virginia 79-73
BartTorvik: Virginia 78-71
ESPN BPI: Virginia +4.3

Bottom line

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Virginia is the better team because of its shot discipline and advantages on the boards and on D.