Poll: McAuliffe has lead in governor’s race

A yawning gender gap in the Virginia governor’s race leaves Democrat Terry McAuliffe with a slight 43-39 percent lead over Republican State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to the results of a May 16 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, showing McAuliffe at 43 percent to Cuccinelli’s 38 percent.

The Republican wins the barbecue poll by a rib as 38 percent say they would prefer to chat with Cuccinelli at a barbecue, while 34 percent would rather talk to McAuliffe.  Women are divided 37-36 percent, while men prefer Cuccinelli 40-33 percent.

“Democrat Terry McAuliffe is ahead by a nose in this tight race, but half the electorate doesn’t know enough about him to decide whether they view him favorably or unfavorably.  Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli is somewhat better known with only a third of voters having no opinion about him,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

“With such a large segment of the electorate unfamiliar with either candidate, there is a lot of movement possible, in either direction, before Election Day.  Solid or shaky, McAuliffe’s lead is built on women voters.”

McAuliffe has a 30-19 favorability rating, with 50 percent of voters saying they don’t know enough about him to form an opinion.  Virginia voters give Cuccinelli a split 31-30 percent favorability rating, with 36 percent offering no opinion.  Voters approve 47-34 percent of the job Cuccinelli is doing as state attorney general.

Since May 16, McAuliffe’s net favorability has improved 6 percentage points while Cuccinelli’s net favorability has dropped 6 points.

In the matchup, Cuccinelli carries Republicans 83-3 percent, while McAuliffe takes Democrats 87-3 percent.  Independent voters are divided with 40 percent for the Democrat and 38 percent for the Republican.  McAuliffe leads 48-32 percent among women and 73-7 percent among black voters.  Cuccinelli leads 46-38 percent among men and 48-36 percent among white voters.

The controversy surrounding Gov. Bob McDonnell will not affect their vote for governor, 70 percent say, while 14 percent say it makes them less likely to vote for Cuccinelli and 10 percent say it would make them more likely to vote for him.

 

Same-Sex Marriage

Virginia voters support 50-43 percent allowing same-sex couples to marry in the state.  Support is 68-26 percent among Democrats and 52-39 percent among independent voters.  Republicans are opposed 68-26 percent.  Women back same-sex marriage 55-39 percent while men are opposed 49-43 percent.  White voters support it 51-43 percent while black voters are opposed 48-42 percent.

The candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney are virtually unknown as 81 to 90 percent of the voters do not know enough about lieutenant governor candidates Ralph Northam, the Democrat, or E.W. Jackson, the Republican, or attorney general candidates Mark Herring, the Democrat, or Mark Obenshain, the Republican, to form an opinion.

“Unknown doesn’t come close to describing just how anonymous the candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney general are to the citizenry that will elect two of them in three and a half months,” said Brown.

Virginia voters disapprove 51-46 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, down from a split 49-47 percent approval May 15.  Disapproval is 87-10 percent among Republicans and 55-41 percent among independent voters.  Democrats approve 84-12 percent.   Women approve 50-45 percent while men disapprove 57-40 percent.

From July 11-15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,030 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.  Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.