March Madness: What UVA Basketball fans need to know about Wright State

Virginia is the #3 seed in the Midwest – the top two seeds in that regional: Michigan and Iowa State – and will play in a first-round game on Friday in Philadelphia, which is not in the Midwest, against Wright State, the #14 seed, and the champion of the Horizon League.

Time and TV network still to be determined.

Wright State (23-11), which is based in Dayton, Ohio, went 15-5 in league play this season, and defeated Detroit Mercy (17-15), 66-63, in the tournament championship game this past Tuesday.

Among the Raiders’ notable nonconference games:

• lost at Cal, 77-67, on Nov. 6.
• lost at Butler, 94-69, on Nov. 28.
• lost at Marshall, 76-74, on Dec. 13.
• lost at home to Miami (Ohio), 83-76, on Dec. 16.

From a metrics perspective: Wright State’s average computer ranking was 139.4, which would translate to a #35 seed, if we did things that way, which we don’t.

Seth Davis just said on the CBS selection show that he expects the UVA-Wright State game to be closer than folks expect.

But then, Seth Davis is a Dookie, and just on this side of “Towering Fraud” Pat Forde in terms of being a world-class basketball media assclown.

Forecast

• KenPom: Virginia 81-65
• ESPN BPI: Virginia +16.2
• Seth Davis: closer than folks expect

Wright State rotation

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• 6’3” freshman Michael Cooper: 13.4 ppg, 44.9% FG, 36.4% 3FG
• 6’1” sophomore TJ Burch: 12.3 ppg, 3.5 assists/g, 2.5 steals/g, 46.0% FG, 34.3% 3FG
• 6’7” senior Michael Imariagbe: 11.8 ppg, 7.0 rebounds/g, 58.9% FG, 16.7% 3FG
• 6’2” sophomore Solomon Callaghan: 9.9 ppg, 41.0% FG, 38.6% 3FG
• 6’7” sophomore Dominic Pangonis: 9.0 ppg, 47.5% FG, 38.3% 3FG
• 6’9” freshman Kellen Pickett: 8.7 ppg, 5.4 rebounds/g, 56.4% FG, 28.0% 3FG
• 6’6” sophomore Andrea Holden: 6.3 ppg, 4.0 rebounds/g, 57.0% FG
• 6’5” junior Logan Woods: 5.4 ppg, 45.0% FG, 33.3% 3FG

Virginia rotation

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• 6’9” freshman Thijs de Ridder: 15.5 ppg, 6.2 rebounds/g, 50.8% FG, 34.0% 3FG
• 6’5” senior Malik Thomas: 12.4 ppg, 3.9 rebounds/g, 41.2% FG, 34.3% 3FG
• 6’6” junior Sam Lewis: 10.8 ppg, 3.6 rebounds/g, 46.2% FG, 40.7% 3FG
• 5’10” freshman Chance Mallory: 9.5 ppg, 3.7 rebounds/g, 3.6 assists/g, 42.1% FG, 34.9% 3FG
• 6’3” senior Jacari White: 8.8 ppg, 45.2% FG, 43.0% 3FG
• 7’0” freshman Johann Grunloh: 7.2 ppg, 5.2 rebounds/g, 2.2 blocks/g, 53.4% FG, 35.0% 3FG
• 7’0” senior Ugonna Onyenso: 6.7 ppg, 5.0 rebounds/g, 3.0 blocks/g, 56.4% FG, 28.6% 3FG
• 6’4” senior Dallin Hall: 5.9 ppg, 4.3 assists/g, 41.9% FG, 32.7% 3FG
• 6’7” senior Devin Tillis: 4.3 ppg, 40.0% FG, 37.7% 3FG

Analytics: Wright State vs. UVA

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Data: KenPom; rankings: among 365 D1 teams

Points per possession

Virginia offense: 1.223 PPP (28)
Wright State defense: 1.110 PPP (193)

Wright State offense: 1.121PPP (117)
Virginia defense: 0.958 PPP (16)

Rebounds

Offensive-Virginia: 38.0% (10)
Defensive-Wright State: 70.8% (121)

Offensive-Wright State: 33.2% (98)
Defensive-Virginia: 71.4% (91)

Turnover rate

Virginia offense: 15.9% (128)
Wright State defense: 16.5% (184)

Wright State offense: 16.3% (154)
Virginia defense: 15.6% (249)

Shooting zones-Virginia offense vs. Wright State defense

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Per game FGs/FGAs; Data: CBB Analytics

Virginia in the paint: 16.5/29.0, 57.0%
Virginia threes: 10.1/28.1, 35.9%
Virginia FTs: 20.0 FTA/g, 72.6%

Wright State D in the paint: 13.7/28.9, 47.3%
Wright State D on threes: 6.8/22.1, 30.8%
Wright State opponent FTs: 19.5 FTA/g

Shooting zones-Wright State offense vs. Virginia defense

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Per game FGs/FGAs; Data: CBB Analytics

Wright State in the paint: 18.6/32.7, 55.8%
Wright State threes: 6.3/18.8, 33.6%
Wright State FTs: 22.2 FTA/g, 74.5%

Virginia D in the paint: 13.8/29.2, 47.2%
Virginia D on threes: 6.9/22.2, 30.9%
Virginia opponent FTs: 19.5 FTA/g