Florida State, 2-10 a year ago, was picked seventh in the preseason by the ACC media geniuses, ahead of the ‘Noles beating up on Alabama, winning 31-17 in Week 1, which made everybody who had them a middle-of-the-pack team look stupid.
But that Week 1 win over ‘Bama is pretty much all we really know about this FSU team at this point – there was a 77-3 win over East Texas A&M in Week 2, then a bye, then a 66-10 win over Kent State in Week 4.
Meaning, it’s been a while since this Florida State team has been punched in the mouth.
ICYMI
- UVA vs. Florida State | This game is low-key huge for the UVA Football program
- UVA Football | First look: ‘Hoos face #8 Florida State on Friday night
- UVA vs. Florida State | Injury, availability updates heading into Friday night
- UVA Football | Three things to fix in the short week ahead of #8 Florida State
- UVA vs. Florida State | News and notes on the ‘Noles heading into primetime matchup
- Podcast | Chris Graham breaks down UVA-Florida State with ‘The Mark Moses Show’
When FSU (3-0) and Virginia (3-1, 1-0 ACC) meet up Friday night in Charlottesville, the game will feature two of the Top 5 offenses in FBS in 2025 – the Seminoles lead the nation with 628.7 yards per game; the ‘Hoos are fifth at 564.5 yards per.
The stats for both are skewed by the squash matches on their schedules – Virginia beat a bad Coastal Carolina team 48-7 in Week 1, then an FCS school, William & Mary, 55-16, in Week 3.
The winner of this one has an inside track to a spot in the ACC Championship Game in Charlotte in December.
Looming over this one is the midseason rivalry game for FSU with #2 Miami on Oct. 4.
Don’t assume Florida State will be overlooking Virginia, but hey, they’re 18- to 24-year-old kids/young adults.
FSU offense vs. UVA defense
Gus Malzahn, the former Auburn and Central Florida head coach, in his first season as the offensive coordinator at FSU, has rebuilt the ‘Noles offense around the run.
Through three games, 66.9 percent of the snaps have been designed runs, with the starting QB – Tommy (“Don’t call me Thomas”) Castellanos – attempting just 38 passes through three games.
FSU is gaining an eye-popping 363.0 yards per game on the ground, and while that figure is inflated because of the two guarantee games, the ‘Noles ran up 230 yards on ‘Bama in Week 1, averaging 4.7 yards per attempt.
Castellanos, who was with Malzahn for one year at UCF before transferring to Boston College, is the key to the redo of the offense under Malzahn.
Castellanos passed for 152 yards in the win over ‘Bama – on just 14 attempts; FSU ran the ball on 49 snaps, with Castellanos gaining 78 yards on the ground, 43 on 10 designed runs, 35 on six scrambles.
The depth at tailback is astounding – five ‘backs got carries in the ‘Bama game, and three have 100+ yards on the ground already this season.
You also have to account for wideout Micahi Danzy (173 yards) in the ground game on reverses and jet sweeps.
Really, you need to account just in general for Danzy – he has nine touches this season, including the five runs and four receptions, and he’s averaging 33.2 yards per touch.
The task for UVA defensive coordinator John Rudzinski is going to be to figure out how to slow down a run game that can be productive really in any direction – between the tackles, FSU has run for 617 yards on 90 attempts (6.9 yards per); 228 yards on 34 runs to the left and right end (6.7 yards per); and 207 yards on 10 jet sweeps, end-arounds and reverses (20.7 yards per).
Gotta keep tabs on Castellanos on designed runs (86 yards on 19 attempts, 4.5 yards per) and scrambles (55 yards on 10 attempts, 5.5 yard per).
Oh, and also, limit yards after catch on receptions – 402 of the 797 passing yards gained through three games are YACs – and be careful on play-action (Castellanos is 14-of-20 for 451 yards and a 131.3 NFL passer rating on play-action passes).
UVA offense vs. FSU defense
The Virginia offense is more balanced – 315 snaps through four games, 156 called passes (with nine of those ending in scrambles, and one sack), 159 called runs.
The FSU defense held ‘Bama to 87 rushing yards in Week 1, so, the ‘Noles can take away the ground game and make you one-dimensional.
The leading tackler in the run game is safety Earl Little Jr. (10 tackles on 46 run snaps), with help from defensive tackles Darrell Jackson Jr. (nine tackles on 35 run snaps) and Mandrell Desir (seven tackles on 20 run snaps), and linebackers Justin Cryer (six tackles on 32 run snaps), Blake Nichelson (five tackles on 24 run snaps) and Omar Graham Jr. (four tackles on 27 run snaps).
The pass rush is headed up by edge guys Darryll Desir (seven pressures on 31 pass snaps), James Williams (seven pressures on 37 pass snaps), Jayson Jenkins (four pressures, including one sack, on 27 pass snaps) and Deamonte Diggs (two pressures, both sacks, on 19 pass snaps), tackles Daniel Lyons (six pressures, including one sack, on 47 pass snaps) and Mandrell Desir (five pressures on 32 snaps), and linebackers Stefon Thompson (three pressures, including one sack, on 16 pass snaps) and Elijah Herring (two pressures, both sacks, on eight pass snaps).
Notice the depth there.
In pass coverage, Little is the highest-graded guy in the secondary, with an 85.5 from Pro Football Focus, allowing, to this point, just one reception on four targets on 72 coverage snaps, with an INT.
The most targeted guy to this stage has been cornerback Jerry Wilson, who has allowed nine receptions on 14 targets for 97 yards, but also has two INTs, and a 44.9 NFL passer rating against.
Wilson is good – the senior had an 86.9 coverage grade in 2024 at Houston, with four INTs and five PBUs on 297 coverage snaps, with 17 completions on 38 pass targets, and a 46.7 NFL passer rating against.
Special teams
Placekicker Jake Weinberg, a sophomore, is 2-of-2 on field-goal tries, and he’s made all 22 of his extra-poit attempts.
His counterpart, Will Bettridge, missed one chippie last week, and barely cleared the crossbar on a second one.
Neither side wants the game to come down to a 40-plus-yard kick in the final two minutes.
The other Maytag repairman/kicker for FSU, punter Mac Chiumento, only has three punts this season – he’s averaging 41.7 yards per.
Weinberg handles kickoffs, and he’s a perfect 21-for-21 in terms of getting touchbacks on his kickoffs.
Virginia’s #1 punter and kickoff guys, Daniel Sparks, is dealing with a hip flexor; his backup, Elijah Slibeck, handled both the punting and kickoff jobs in the Stanford game last week, and was solid – with punts of 48 and 58 yards, and an average hangtime of 4.52 seconds, and recording seven touchbacks on his nine kickoffs, with an average starting field position of 23.9.
Coaching staffs
Mike Norvell, the head coach at FSU, was very much on the hot seat coming into the 2025 season after last year’s 2-10 debacle.
I like what he did in the offseason, hiring Malzahn and Tony White (the FSU defensive coordinator) to beef up his staff.
Norvell is sitting at 3-0 and #8 in the country now, but that’s entirely on the basis of that win over Alabama nearly a month ago.
The schedule going forward isn’t all that bad – next week, FSU hosts Miami, and after that, the tough ones would be at Clemson (Nov. 8), at NC State (Nov. 21) and at Florida (Nov. 29).
Win this one, and win next week against the ‘Canes, and you could be looking at an undefeated regular season here.
Flip side, lose this one, lose to Miami, and …
Tony Elliott, for his part, was 11-23 through three seasons at UVA, so a 3-1 start this season gives him some breathing room.
A win here sets up something interesting as a possibility for UVA Football.
ESPN has the strength of schedule after this week ranked 16th among the 17 ACC programs.
Get past FSU, and then steal a win on the road next week at Louisville (Oct. 4), and the toughies going forward are at UNC (Oct. 25), maybe the one at Cal (Nov. 1), definitely at Duke (Nov. 15).
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