I wrote back on Sept. 30 about 20 House of Delegates seats currently held by MAGA Republicans that look to be in play in the 2025 cycle.
The criteria: how the vote split in 2024 between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, primarily.
What I was looking for: districts that played inside a 10-point win for Trump to a Harris win by any margin.
I’m going to present them in tiers, from best chances for the Ds on down.
Data on 2024 Trump-Harris results and campaign finance from the Virginia Public Access Project website.
Best shots
HD 57: May Nivar (D) vs. David Owen (R)
2024 vote: Harris 53.5 percent, Trump 44.1 percent
2025 money: Nivar $1,746,010 Owen $818,835
Analysis: I mean, Harris won here in 2024 by 9.4 points. Owen is obviously attracting a lot of money from MAGAs who want to keep this seat. This is almost a lost-cause for the Rs.
HD 71: Jessica Anderson (D) vs. Amanda Batten (R)
2024 vote: Harris 51.5 percent, Trump 46.8 percent
2025 money: Anderson $1,419,937, Batten $874,332
Analysis: A rematch from 2023, which Batten won by 677 votes. The Ds, from the money numbers, see blood in the water.
HD 82: Kimberly Pope Adams (D) vs. Kim Taylor (R)
2024 vote: Harris 51.4 percent, Trump 47.5 percent
2025 money: Adams $2,355,544, Taylor $1,056,928
Analysis: A rematch from 2023, which Taylor won by 78 votes. Look at that fundraising.
HD 89: Karen Robins Carnegie (D) vs. Mike Lamonea (R)
2024 vote: Harris 50.1 percent, Trump 47.2 percent
2025 money: Carnegie $1,751,843, Lamonea $646,778
Analysis: Lamonea is the MAGA nominee after the one-termer in the 89th, Ennis Baxter, decided against running for a second term. Ennis won in 2023 by 521 votes.
HD 22: Elizabeth Guzman (D) vs. Ian Lovejoy (R)
2024 vote: Harris 49.0 percent, Trump 47.9 percent
2025 money: Guzman $1,782,016, Lovejoy $1,064,412
Analysis: Lovejoy is running for his first re-election after winning in 2023 by a 4.6-point margin. Guzman is a former three-term state delegate who gave up her seat in 2023 to run for the State Senate, and coming up short by 60 votes in her bid for the Democratic nomination.
HD 75: Lindsey Dougherty (D) vs. Carrie Coyner (R)
2024 vote: Harris 52.3 percent, Trump 46.2 percent
2025 money: Dougherty $2,046,983, Coyner $1,329,299
Analysis: Coyner won by 4.2 points in 2023 after a 13-point win in 2021, and a 10.4-point win (over Dougherty) back in 2019. Coyner is obviously attracting MAGA money. The Ds will need to step up here.
HD 73: Leslie Mehta (D) vs. Mark Earley Jr. (R)
2024 vote: Harris 49.3 percent, Trump 48.7 percent
2025 money: Mehta $1,389,453, Earley $443,834
Analysis: Earley won his freshman race in 2023 by nine points. Mehta is obviously making a serious run here.
HD 30: John McAuliff (D) vs. Geary Higgins (R)
2024 vote: Trump 49.2 percent, Harris 48.4 percent
2025 money: McAuliff $970,141, Higgins $745,164
Analysis: Higgins is another first-time re-election candidate; he won in 2023 by a 6.4-point margin. The impact of the Trump/DOGE layoffs, and McAuliff’s fundraising prowess, are key factors here.
HD 86: Virgil Thornton (D) vs. AC Cordoza (R)
2024 vote: Harris 49.6 percent, Trump 48.5 percent
2025 money: Thornton $1,283,816, Cordoza $365,305
Analysis: Cordoza won by 94 votes in 2021, then had a comfortable 12.8-point margin in 2023.
Keep an eye on
HD 66: Nicole Cole (D) vs. Bobby Orrock (R)
2024 vote: Trump 49.0 percent, Harris 46.8 percent
2025 money: Cole $997,990, Orrock $341,682
Analysis: Orrock has been in the House since 1990, and won in 2023 by 11.5 points. The Trump 2024 margin and the money numbers have my attention.
HD 69: Mark Downey (D) vs. Chad Green (R)
2024 vote: Trump 49.8 percent, Harris 48.4 percent
2025 money: Downey $702,365, Green $496,706
Analysis: Another sophomore, Green ran unopposed in 2023.
HD 64: Stacey Annie Carroll (D) vs. Paul Milde (R)
2024 vote: Trump 50.0 percent, Harris 48.0 percent
2025 money: Carroll $894,581, Milde $383,129
Analysis: Milde won in 2023 by nine points. Carroll’s money numbers, and the narrow Trump 2024 margin, make the sophomore run more of a challenge.
HD 41: Lily Franklin (D) vs. Chris Obenshain (R)
2024 vote: Trump 51.2 percent, Harris 46.7 percent
2025 money: Franklin $1,397,003, Obenshain $1,132,372
Analysis: The money numbers will get your attention in this rematch from 2023, which Obenshain won by 183 votes. Even with the Trump number in 2024, this one might be gettable.
HD 34: Andrew Payton (D) vs. Tony Wilt (R)
2024 vote: Trump 52.7 percent, Harris 45.3 percent
2025 money: Wilt $284,411, Payton $272,519
Analysis: Wilt won in 2023 by 12.1 points; he had back-to-back single-digit wins in 2017 and 2019. The district includes the City of Harrisonburg, which will go big for the D. Payton needs to run better in the Rockingham County portion of the district than Dems traditionally do. Easier said than done.
Long shots
HD 100: Liz Richardson (D) vs. Rob Bloxom Jr. (R)
2024 vote: Trump 50.9 percent, Harris 45.9 percent
2025 money: Bloxom $177,918, Richardson $48,996
Analysis: Bloxom has served in the House since 2014, and hasn’t had a close election since the redistricting. Richardson’s job here may be to get within 10 points, so the candidate here in 2027 can get some state party support.
HD 99: Cat Porterfield (D) vs. Anne Ferrell Tata (R)
2024 vote: Trump 51.4 percent, Harris 46.8 percent
2025 money: Tata $310,393, Porterfield $47,651
Analysis: Tata has two double-digit wins in the 99th, which might be why you have a district that was relatively close in 2024 where the D isn’t getting a lot of support from the party in 2025.
HD 40: Donna Littlepage (D) vs. Joe McNamara (R)
2024 vote: Trump 53.7 percent, Harris 44.6 percent
2025 money: McNamara $256,623, Littlepage $113,671
Analysis: The trend is for closer elections for McNamara, who won in 2017 in 2019 by 24.2 and 32.9 points, and in 2021 by more than 40, but in 2023, his margin was inside 20, in a district that went to Trump by 9.1 in 2024.
HD 83: Mary Person (D) vs. Otto Wachsmann (R)
2024 vote: Trump 53.5 percent, Harris 45.5 percent
2025 money: Wachsmann $130,992, Person $59,926
Analysis: A rematch from 2023, which Wachsmann won by 16.9 points. His 2021 win was closer: 5.2 points.
HD 52: Rise Marie Hayes (D) vs. Wendell Walker (R)
2024 vote: Trump 53.5 percent, Harris 44.5 percent
2025 money: Walker $181,159, Hayes $58,172
Analysis: Cities usually skew D, but the city in the 52nd is Lynchburg. Walker won by 9.1 points in 2023 after a 33.4-point win in 2021 and a 27.9-point win in 2019, but … Hayes isn’t doing enough money-wise to make you think she can mount a serious challenge.
HD 74: Jonas James Eppert (D) vs. Mike Cherry (R)
2024 vote: Trump 53.7 percent, Harris 45.0 percent
2025 money: Cherry $183,771, Eppert $44,437
Analysis: Cherry ran unopposed in 2023; in 2021, he won by a relatively close 4.9 points. Eppert’s fundraising suggests the Ds aren’t thinking Cherry is all that vulnerable.
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Chris Graham
