This time a year ago, a 4-1 UVA Football team was preparing to face Louisville, just as a 4-1 UVA Football team is preparing to face Louisville this weekend.
The 2024 ‘Hoos took a 20-17 lead into the final two minutes, but the Cardinals rallied for the 24-20 win.
The loss was the first in a closing stretch that saw Virginia go from 4-1 to 5-7, ahead of a sea change in the approach taken by the University of Virginia with respect to the sport of college football.
The school once known for turning down an Orange Bowl bid – back in the 1950s – is now all in; donors gave fourth-year coach Tony Elliott a budget of $35 million to build a roster that the money folks expect to be able to compete with the best in the business.
The early returns are favorable – Virginia (4-1, 2-0 ACC) is back in the Top 25 for the first time since 2019 on the heels of a 46-38 double-OT win over then-#8 Florida State last week, and the ESPN Football Power Index has the program’s odds of earning a College Football Playoff berth at 11.5 percent.
Louisville (4-0, 1-0 ACC) is in the CFP mix itself – the FPI puts the Cardinals’ chances at 7.9 percent.
Louisville rallied from a 17-0 first-quarter deficit to win on the road at Pitt, 34-27, on Saturday.
UL is a 7.5-point home favorite going into this one, which surprises me a little – that implies Vegas thinks Louisville would also be favored if the two teams were meeting this season in Charlottesville.
This is a Louisville team that was outplayed by JMU in a 28-14 Louisville win – the Dukes had 19 first downs, held Louisville to 264 total yards, and had the ball for 37:07.
Whatever.
The strength of the Louisville team this year is its defense – the Cards D ranks 18th in the country in total defense (268.2 yards/g), and that’s not just a function of a soft, to this point, schedule: Louisville held Pitt to 339 yards on Saturday, and forced five Panthers turnovers.
Starting QB Miller Moss, a Southern Cal transfer, is averaging 257.3 yards per game, completing 65.6 percent of his pass attempts.
The ground game averages a modest 130.2 yards per.
The game kicks off in the 3:30 p.m. ET quarter hour, and is being broadcast on ESPN2.
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Chris Graham
