Analysis: Fallout from the pending NBC-Big Ten deal benefits ESPN, ACC

Good news for ESPN and the ACC: Notre Dame doesn’t need to join the Big Ten, now that the Big Ten appears set to book-end Notre Dame football on NBC.

NBC is reportedly close to finalizing a deal with the Big Ten that would have the network airing B1G games either as part of Saturday doubleheaders with Notre Dame or as solo prime-time features when Notre Dame is playing a B1G opponent.

This would satisfy NBC’s desire to have “shoulder programming” to justify the anticipated increase in cost for re-upping with Notre Dame, which is reportedly seeking $75 million a year when its current TV deal with the network expires in 2025, more than three times what the school is getting from NBC currently.

This is actually good news on two fronts for the ACC, which won’t see Notre Dame try to jump ship to join the Big Ten, and also won’t see NBC try to throw money at either the Big 12 or Pac-12 to provide the “shoulder programming” to pair with its Notre Dame broadcasts.

The ACC can’t make a bid to be a part of that “shoulder programming” because of its deal with ESPN, which runs through 2036.

ESPN recently dropped out of the running for a slice of the Big Ten TV pie after the conference pushed the price tag up in the wake of its moves this summer to add USC and UCLA.

That move by ESPN opened the door for NBC and CBS, which bowed out of the running to continue its long-time broadcast relationship with the SEC when it was outbid last year by ESPN, to jump into the B1G business.

Fox will still get the first pick at the Big Ten football game it wants each week, which means NBC and CBS are paying huge bucks to get the second- and third-tier games.

Funny how that goes.

In terms of winners and losers, the ACC still has its five games a year with Notre Dame, giving the conference two or three games each year on NBC, the rest on ESPN/ABC, and Notre Dame is still a member of the conference in everything else.

This all solidifies the ACC as the third wheel in a superpower universe, ahead of the Big 12 and Pac-12.

ESPN gets the SEC and ACC to itself, and doesn’t have to overpay for second- and third-tier Big Ten games.

ESPN is the big winner here.

Fox gets its pick of Big Ten inventory, but it doesn’t get Notre Dame.

NBC and CBS are paying a lot for a lot of second- and third-tier games.

The Big Ten will find out what it’s like to be ignored by ESPN.

The B1G folks will have to console themselves with all those hundreds of millions from Fox.