Pack closer to punching ticket? N.C. State’s 51-47 loss to #2 UVA on Feb. 11 was the Pack’s fifth loss in six games, and it seemed that State’s NCAA Tournament hopes were fading, if not flaming.
Tuesday’s win at #15 UNC was the second in 11 days on the road at a ranked opponent, and the three-game winning streak since the UVA loss seems to have the Wolfpack sitting pretty.
ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi already had State (17-11, 8-7 ACC) in his NCAA field before the UNC win.
With wins over UNC and Louisville on the road and Duke at home, the Pack has an 11-11 record against the ESPN Basketball Power Index Top 100.
State was 33rd in the BPI heading into the UNC game. (The index is updated overnight.)
It would still seem to be a good idea for the Wolfpack to get some more Ws down the stretch. The Pack finishes at Boston College, at Clemson (which defeated State in Raleigh on Jan. 28) and at home against Syracuse.
Notre Dame out of running for one seed? That question could be read one of two ways. Looking ahead to the ACC Tournament, the Irish (24-5, 12-4 ACC) clinched a double-bye with UNC’s loss to N.C. State, and are still mathematically alive in the race for the mythical ACC regular-season title even with their own home loss to Syracuse.
But Notre Dame is now three games back in the loss column to first-place UVA, which can eliminate the Irish from the regular-season race with a win at Wake Forest Wednesday night.
The chase for a #1 national seed has probably come to an end. Had Notre Dame won out in the regulr season and won the ACC Tournament, the resume would have screamed #1, but it’s looking more and more that the Irish is slotted in as the third-best of the Power 3 in the ACC, and as such has a ceiling at the two-seed line, and is more likely going to be a solid three.
Big game alert: Miami desperately needs a win at home Wednesday in its rivalry game with Florida State. The ‘Canes (17-10, 7-7 ACC) are 48th in the BPI, 6-9 against the BPI Top 100, with that nice road win at Duke, but bad losses to Eastern Kentucky, Georgia Tech, Florida State and Wake Forest weighing them down.
Virginia, Duke, #1s: #2 UVA and #4 Duke both go on the road Wednesday. Virginia plays at Wake Forest, which took the Cavs to the final seconds in a 61-60 loss on Feb. 14. The Hokies and Blue Devils have not met this season.
Virginia has the bigger margin for error between the two in the race for #1 national seeds – as the #2 team in the BPI – but it’s been awhile since UVA has had a good eye test, even in winning six straight since its only loss of the season, at home to Duke on Jan. 31.
The last five of those wins have come with All-America candidate Justin Anderson on the sidelines recovering from a broken finger, and none have been pretty.
Duke, meanwhile, ranked #7 in the BPI, has won seven straight since losing at Notre Dame on Jan. 28. The only real blemish on its season is the back-to-back losses to N.C. State and Miami in mid-January.
Down the stretch, UVA finishes with Virginia Tech at home on Saturday then a pair of road games in the final week, against resurgent Syracuse and at Louisville. Duke finishes with Syracuse and Wake Forest at home and then its regular-season closer at UNC.
Virginia has a two-game lead on Duke in the ACC regular-season race, but Duke owns the tiebreaker between the two by virtue of its win at UVA.
– Column by Chris Graham
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