It’s been about 10 years, but I recall my one and only visit (to this point) to Chapel Hill.
I was down in the Triangle for a Duke-UVA football game, and one of the things I do when I’m on the road in a new place is, I like to go on a long run, to get a lay of the land.
Google Maps showed me that the hotel I was staying at was only about three miles from the center of the UNC campus, and back then, I was in marathon training, so a six-miler was a layup.
The map didn’t let me in on how the run from the hotel to the center of the UNC campus was all uphill.
Some places have “Hill” in their name just because.
Chapel Hill, I can confirm, is at the top of a steep hill, at least from the direction of the hotel that I stayed in for that football game.
UNC: Going dancing?
North Carolina (16-11, 9-6 ACC, NET: 45) can’t afford a slip-up on Saturday with the UVA Basketball team (13-13, 6-9 ACC, NET: 105) coming to town.
The Tar Heels have played a tough schedule – the fifth-toughest nationally, per the NCAA, with the second-toughest non-conference schedule.
Problem is, pretty much all they’ve done is lose games against good teams – UNC is 1-10 in Quad 1 games.
You don’t get an invite to the Big Dance by losing a lot of games to good teams.
On the flip side, they only have one bad loss – the home loss to Stanford (16-10, 8-7 ACC, NET: 85) back on Jan. 18, which counts as a Quad 3 loss.
Virginia, with that 105 ranking in the NET, is a Quad 3 game for the Heels.
The game with UVA is the first of four Quad 2s and Quad 3s in a row for Carolina (at FSU is a Quad 2, Miami at home and at Virginia Tech are both Quad 3s), before finishing with Duke at home on March 8.
A loss in any of the next four makes it really hard for UNC when it comes to Selection Sunday, absent an upset of Duke, or a deep run in the ACC Tournament.
Getting to know: The UNC rotation
Six-foot-even point guard RJ Davis (17.5 ppg, 3.9 assists/g, 40.2% FG, 31.1% 3FG) is back for a fifth year at UNC because, as good as he is in college, he doesn’t project as an NBA guy.
Ian Jackson, a 6’4” freshman (13.6 ppg, 47.0% FG, 38.5% 3FG), is a projected first-round or early-second-round pick in the 2025 draft.
Drake Powell, a 6’6” freshman (6.9 ppg, 4.8 rebounds/g, 47.6% FG, 37.3% 3FG), is on the big board as a second-round pick in some mock drafts for 2025.
Seth Trimble (12.1 ppg, 5.5 rebounds/g, 43.2% FG, 27.5% 3FG), a 6’3” junior, and 6’1” sophomore Elliot Cadeau (10.3 ppg, 6.0 assists/g, 45.9% FG, 30.8% 3FG) are the other key guys in coach Hubert Davis’s backcourt rotation.
What’s missing is any sort of frontcourt punch.
I remember 6’10” junior Jalen Washington from a couple of years ago, when he had to step in for an injured Armando Bacot in a game in JPJ, and put up 13 points and six rebounds in 27 minutes in a game Virginia went on to win, 65-58.
Based on that, I expected Washington to be the next good UNC big.
He’s not been that (6.4 ppg, 4.7 rebounds/g, 57.4% FG in 2024-2025).
Ven-Allen Lubin, a 6’8” junior at his third school in three years, is basically an innings-eater (6.9 ppg, 4.8 rebounds/g, 69.4% FG).
Jae’Lyn Withers, a fifth-year senior in his second year at UNC, is just OK (5.3 ppg, 3.6 rebounds/g, 52.1% FG, 42.9% 3FG).
How UVA matches up
Virginia is also good in the backcourt, and limited up front.
Hey, for the first time in forever, there won’t be a need to double Armando Bacot in the post, so that’s a plus going in.
My guess is that interim UVA Basketball coach Ron Sanchez goes with 6’1” sophomore Dai Dai Ames (8.0 ppg, 46.1% FG, 40.0% 3FG) on Davis on defense.
You’re not going to stop Davis; you just hope to make him work for what he gets.
I’d go with 6’10” redshirt freshman Anthony Robinson (who is averaging 8.6 points and 4.2 rebounds in 16.8 minutes per game in his last five games) in the starting lineup, personally, and put Elijah Saunders (10.9 ppg, 5.3 rebounds/g, 42.5% FG, 37.1% 3FG) out there with him.
That would be, to me, the right mix of toughness and punch in the post.
Forecast
- KenPom: UNC 77-66
- BartTorvik: UNC 75-66
- EvanMiya: UNC 78-66
- Haslametrics: UNC 75-66
- ESPN BPI: UNC +12.2
Share
Chris Graham
