All Isaac McKneely had to do was make one free throw, and the NC State Final Four run doesn’t happen, and Kevin Keatts is probably done as the coach down there.
Instead, Tony Bennett, who was the front end of a one-and-one from an 85 percent free-throw shooter away from another ACC Tournament final, is the one who is done, and Keatts is now tethered to State through 2030.
Funny how things work out.
Keatts will be leading his Wolfpack (8-4, 1-0 ACC) into the oddly-timed Tuesday-at-noon ACC home opener for the UVA Basketball team – seriously, who over there agrees to this scheduling nonsense from the folks at the ACC and ESPN?
Dave O’Brien and Cory Alexander will be on the call for the matchup of the #102 and #103 teams in the NET, which seems like overkill, having those guys in town, when you could have gotten away with a couple of schlubs like me from the ESPN+ roster getting a couple of hundred bucks and a coupon for half off a Burger King Whopper for their time and trouble.
Forecast
- BartTorvik: Virginia 60-57, 62% win probability
- KenPom: Virginia 62-61, 56% win probability
- EvanMiya: NC State 65-64, 52% win probability
- ESPN BPI: NC State +0.9, 53.6% win probability
- Haslametrics: NC State 59-58
Getting to know: NC State
Even Keatts is still trying to figure out what he has this year, with three transfers and a freshman in his rotation.
His leading scorer, Marcus Hill (12.6 ppg, 50.5% FG, 23.5% 3FG), a 6’4” senior, is a Bowling Green transfer and former JUCO All-American.
The other double-digit guy, 6’4” senior Jayden Taylor (12.4 ppg, 44.9% FG, 32.6% 3FG), is a holdover, in his second season, after two years at Butler; as is 6’10” senior Ben Middlebrooks (9.8 ppg, 4.5 rebounds/g, 1.7 blocks/g, 54.2% FG), also in his second season at State, after two years at Clemson.
Middlebrooks was a tough matchup for Virginia in the ACC Tournament game in March – scoring 12 points and hauling down six rebounds in 20 minutes off the bench.
He’s solid on the back end of pick-and-rolls, as we saw in March.
Dontrez Styles (9.7 ppg, 45.0% FG, 35.6% 3FG), a 6’6” senior, transferred in from Georgetown after two seasons at North Carolina, where he barely got on the floor.
Another ACC transfer, Brandon Huntley-Hatfield (9.0 ppg, 5.3 rebounds/g, 53.3% FG), a 6’10” senior, spent two years at Louisville after a year at Tennessee.
Michael O’Connell (6.5 ppg, 4.0 assists/g, 40.6% FG, 28.6% 3FG), a fifth-year senior, is a second-year guy at State, after three years at Stanford.
O’Connell is good at banking threes to keep the season alive, if you remember.
How the teams match up
Per KenPom, Keatts goes with a four-guard lineup, with either Middlebrooks or Huntley-Hatfield at center, for 36 of the 40 minutes, using Styles (23.2 minutes/g) and Dennis Parker Jr. (3.0 ppg, 3.0 rebounds/g, 13.3 minutes/g), a 6’6” sophomore, at the four spot.
This could force the hand of UVA coach Ron Sanchez, who will go with Jacob Cofie (8.3 ppg, 6.2 rebounds/g, 51.3% FG, 28.0% 3FG), a 6’9” freshman, at the four, but Cofie (4.0 fouls/40 minutes) will have to avoid early foul trouble.
I see Blake Buchanan (5.7 ppg, 5.1 rebounds/g, 51.9% FG), a 6’11” sophomore, getting minutes opposite Middlebrooks in the post, with Elijah Saunders (11.3 ppg, 5.3 rebounds/g, 45.7% FG, 38.7% 3FG) getting minutes at the five opposite Huntley-Hatfield and at the four when Cofie needs a break.
Defense in the paint will need to be a point of focus for the Cavaliers.
NC State ranks in the Top 10 percent nationally in points in the paint (36.5 points per game), and over their last five games, the Pack is shooting 57.0 percent in the paint.
The magic number there: State has averaged 16 makes in the paint over its last five.
This is not a good perimeter team (32.0 percent from three, ranking 271st nationally).
Another point of focus: transition D.
The Pack averages 17.9 fast-break points per game, which ranks in the Top 1 percent nationally.
Sanchez is going to want to limit easy buckets in transition, limit dribble penetration in the halfcourt, double the ball out of the hands of the bigs, and make State chuck up threes.
Which is to say, he’ll want to play Tony Bennett Basketball.
The issue, as always, will be: scoring enough points.
The computers all have this game being in the upper 50s/low 60s.
That might be optimistic.
Video: NC State-UVA preview
Share
Chris Graham
