I have previously commented about the strategic blunders the Trump regime has made in its war on Iran.
Add this one: the gains both China and Russia have made at U.S. expense. While the war has had costs for both those countries, on balance it has benefited both more.
China: Schadenfreude
The U.S. war on Iran has put China in an uncomfortable position. With Donald Trump’s official visit upcoming in April, the Chinese don’t want to go overboard in their criticism. On the other hand, they have built up a “strategic partnership” with Iran and see opportunities to strengthen China’s public diplomacy in calling out U.S. aggression.
“Taking advantage of another’s misfortune,” a Chinese saying goes — schadenfreude. Accordingly, China is denouncing the U.S. war and rhetorically supporting Iran while doing nothing to upset the timetable for Trump’s visit.
China needs Iran’s oil, which accounts for roughly 13 percent of China’s oil imports. China no doubt also values Iran as a thorn in the side of U.S. diplomacy in the Middle East. But the Trump visit and the opportunity for a landmark trade deal looms larger than defense of Iran — even to the point of stopping daily military flights near Taiwan.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi set out the official line on Iran by saying, in a phone call with the foreign minister of Oman:
“Despite progress in the [U.S.-Iran] talks, the U.S. and Israel deliberately provoked a war against Iran, which clearly violates the purposes and principles of the UN Charter. China believes that the pressing task now is to immediately cease military actions to prevent further spillover of the conflict and avert an irreversible deterioration.”
In a call with Iran’s foreign minister, Wang Yi said China “supports Iran in safeguarding its sovereignty, security, territorial integrity and national dignity and in upholding its legitimate and lawful rights and interests.” But Wang offered nothing more than the hope that “Iran will maintain its national and social stability, take seriously the legitimate concerns of neighboring countries, and ensure the safety of Chinese citizens and institutions in Iran.”
This care to limit “support” of Iran reflects debate in the Chinese think tank community over China’s foreign policy generally. Though there are a few experts who believe China is too timid in the face of U.S. recklessness, the most common view recommends pursuing a position of neutrality and mediation in the Iran-U.S. wars.
The longer the war goes on, China’s leaders no doubt believe, the more will that posture improve China’s reputation and increase its influence in the region and in the Global South as a whole. Diplomacy has been the mainstay of China’s Middle East policy, best symbolized by China’s brokering of a now-moribund reconciliation of Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023. The contrast with the US destruction of Iran and partnership in Israel’s decimation of Beirut enhances China’s image as a responsible great power.
Russia: A gift that keeps on giving
As one might expect, Vladimir Putin’s response to the U.S. attack on Iran was meant to deflect attention from Russia’s own aggression. Putin referred to “armed Israeli-American aggression” and called the “assassination” of Iran’s Supreme Leader a “cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law.” He should know. But he has to feel relieved that the mantle of international criminal can now be shared with the U.S. president.
Over the past year or so, Russia has lost important allies in Syria and Venezuela. Trump is predicting that Cuba, another Russian friend, is “at the end of the line” as it faces an energy crisis caused by what is essentially a U.S. blockade of Cuban oil imports. Now Iran: Moscow can do little to defend Iran which, over the last four years, has become an important trade partner with Russia and at one time supplied Russia with drones. But if Russia’s so-called “comprehensive strategic partnership” with Iran has been lost for now, Russia still may count important benefits from the war.
First, Moscow has gained new justification for its war with Ukraine. If Trump can attack Iran without just cause, so can Putin attack Ukraine. It’s all a matter of national interest, not international law.
Second, Russia now finds justification for abandoning any pretense of interest in a settlement with Ukraine. Prominent Russian spokespeople are saying that the US, by attacking Iran, has lost all credibility as an honest broker interested in peacemaking. At any moment, these critics say, the U.S. might attack Russia. Best to keep fighting and defeat Ukraine.
Third, Russian oil revenues are back on the upswing thanks to Iran’s ability to disrupt tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Russia doesn’t use the strait to ship its oil. Trump has lifted sanctions on imports of Russian oil and China and India are paying higher prices, helping Russia finance the Ukraine war to the tune of an estimated $3.5 billion a month. The EU countries may be forced to buy Russian oil before long.
Goodbye to a rules-based order
In all, U.S. defiance of international norms by rejecting a negotiated resolution with Iran in favor of a war that has affected numerous countries in and beyond the Middle East puts China and Russia in a comfortable political position.
They are finding ways to support Iran — China via surreptitious oil shipments and Russia via military intelligence sharing — that are risk-free and low-profile. The U.S. appears as an aggressor state, an unpredictable partner, a country whose behavior runs counter to its professions of respect for a “rules-based international order.”
Beijing and Moscow will forever be reminding the world that Venezuela and Iran are models a U.S. foreign policy based on threats and the use of force.
Support AFP
Share
